- The Writer holds an MSc in Eurasian Political Economy & Energy from King’s College London and also an MA in European Studies from Sabancı University.
Current discoveries and potential improvements in the field of energy in Israel and Cyprus would likely play a greater role in both Turkey and its surrounding region once offshore gas fields in the Eastern-Mediterranean region are fully utilized.
In 2011, Texas-based Noble Energy announced that the volume of untapped reserves in the Exclusive Economic Zone of Cyprus could reach up to 5 to 8 trillion cubic meters, which could easily put the region in the top ranks of the world’s largest gas reserves category. Turkey’s southern coastal town of Ceyhan could potentially be a promising energy corridor, through which Cypriot gas could be delivered to the EU gas market given the close proximity of the reserves.
Considering the political dispute that divides the north and south, of the island, the potential to become one of the major gas suppliers of the Southern Gas Corridor project has been somewhat undermined. The current stalemate on the dispute’s resolution between the two sides suggests that it is unlikely that there will be any significant improvement in the near term.
Reunification talks between the Greek Cypriot and Turkish Cypriot communities on the island resumed in May 2015.
The eastern Mediterranean island was divided into a Turkish Cypriot state in the north and a Greek Cypriot administration in the south after a 1974 military coup on the island was followed by the intervention of Turkey as a guarantor power.
Nevertheless, with a more optimistic and visionary view, the former Energy Minister of Turkey, Taner Yildiz, remarked on the potential project by saying, “I believe a pipeline that would carry Cypriot gas to Europe via Turkey could be built, just like the way we carry water to Cyprus with pipelines” in response to reporters’ questions just before the Atlas for Biomass Potential meeting in 2014. However, unless the dispute with the Greek Cyprus administration is resolved through diplomatic channels, the potential for Cyprus to become one of the suppliers of the Southern Gas Corridor will be shelved for an unknown period of time. This would also put the long-term aspiration of resolving the island’s conflict at risk. Out of all options for the Greek Cypriots, the most financially feasible and economically viable option to bring gas to the lucrative European market still remains with a newly-constructed short pipeline via Turkey.
The newly developed offshore gas fields in Israel should also be considered as one of the most significant contributors for the elevation of East-Med gas on the world’s energy agenda. As one of the potential newcomers to the Caspian “Great Game,” Israel, with newly discovered volumes of 535 billion cubic meters of gas in the Leviathan, and 285 billion cubic meters in the Tamar fields, are promising sources of gas supplies. These discoveries would likely prove a game-changer in the Southern Gas Corridor project.
Owing to the revolution in Egypt in 2013, Israel was about to face severe and unanticipated gas shortages before the newly-found untapped gas reserves offshore in the Eastern Mediterranean. This timely discovery has facilitated Israel’s energy supply security in times of very high fuel costs.
The relationship between Turkey and Israel after the Mavi Marmara incident in 2010 deteriorated to the lowest point in recent history. As a result, Israel and the Greek Cypriot administration inked a maritime border agreement with the aim of finding an alternative route to Turkey for gas transportation.
Despite all the conflict with Turkey, Ceyhan in southern Turkey still appears to be the most commercially sound option for Israel through which gas can be transported to Europe through existing infrastructure. In other words, given Israel’s financial strengths and its capacity to access capital, the transportation of additional gas through the existing Ceyhan pipelines to the EU is the most viable option for both parties. Taking into account the spare capacity that the Leviathan and Tamar gas fields would generate with the ensuing improvements in Israel’s gas fields, Turkey would take a step closer to fulfilling its ambition of establishing a regional natural gas hub.
Overall, energy cooperation would be a constructive catalyst for reconciling Turkey and Israel. Furthermore, trilateral cooperation between Turkey, Israel and Cyprus, as far-fetched as it may sound, would promote a secure energy source for the region and for Europe, as well as strengthen Turkey’s hand in the Southern Gas Corridor as a major potential energy hub country.
- Opinions expressed in this piece are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Anadolu Agency's editorial policy.
