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EBRD forecasts 5.5% growth in Turkish economy, 4.2% in emerging countries

- Bank revises up its forecast of 3.6% economic growth for its countries of operation in October 2020 as recovery gains pace

home > Electricity, Finance, Türkiye, General 29.06.2021 12:08 Nuran Erkul

EBRD forecasts 5.5% growth in Turkish economy, 4.2% in emerging countries

Turkey’s economy is expected to grow by 5.5% in 2021 and 4% in 2022, according to the forecast of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) released on Tuesday.

The forecast for Turkish economic growth this year is driven by exports, as the bank said domestic demand remains constrained by the impact of weaker household financial circumstances.

For 2022, the EBRD forecast economic growth of 4% in Turkey and 3.9% in its countries of operation.

During a virtual news briefing, EBRD President Odile Renaud-Basso confirmed the bank’s commitment to invest in green projects in Turkey with an emphasis on the environment, specifically with the private sector where 95% of the bank’s investments are made.

The EBRD revised its economic growth forecast to an average of 4.2% growth in emerging economies in eastern Europe, Central Asia and Northern Africa as the recovery gathers pace following the COVID-19 pandemic. The represents a better growth rate from the bank’s previous forecast cited in its Regional Economic Prospects report in October 2020 of 3.6%.

According to the EBRD, as the increasing rollout of vaccination programs and the improving situation in public health allows for a gradual withdrawal of social distancing measures and other restrictions, the economy has restarted.

"Our forecast shows that the recession has been a bit less dramatic than expected," Renaud-Basso said.

Output contraction in 2020 was also milder at 2.3% than previously forecast, which was 3.9% following improvements in the overall economic environment late last year thanks to strong exports and fiscal support.

Industrial production and retails sales have mostly recovered and the average mobility of people in the EBRD's countries of operation has largely returned to the pre-pandemic levels, the EBRD said.

Higher commodity prices helped commodity exporters by boosting their revenues and manufacturing demand has been strong, the bank said.

In central Europe and in the Baltic states growth of 4.8% is expected this year and will reach 4.6% in 2022 with the impact of strong household consumption and investment supported by EU recovery funds, as the southern-eastern EU GDP is expected to grow by 5.2% this year and 5% in 2022.

The bank forecasts economic growth of 5.1% in the Western Balkans this year and 3.8% in 2022.

Russia’s economy is expected to grow by 3.3% in 2021 and 3% in 2022, as the easing of restrictions on activity supports recovery in domestic demand. In Eastern Europe and Caucasus economies, growth of 2.8% is expected this year and 3% next year.

The outlook for Central Asia shows a 4.5% growth rate in 2021 and next year, while southern and eastern Mediterranean economies are expected to grow by 3.5% this year and 4.5% in 2022.


- EBRD to be fully Paris aligned by end of 2022 at latest

Renaud-Basso said the bank aims to focus on projects that are in compliance with the Paris Climate agreement and which target issues of inclusion, gender balance and digitalization.

"Our one important objective is to be a majority green bank by 2025, at least half of our projects with a green dimension and pact. Now we want to increase our activity in this area with a complementary approach which means to be to be fully Paris aligned by the end of 2022 at the latest," she said.

"This means we will look at every project with finance which is consistent with the Paris Agreement."

The bank's annual investment in its countries of operation averages around €10 billion, but she said last year was an exception with €11 billion with more liquidity needs due to the pandemic.

She added that the bank will be able to maintain the same level of investment and could expand further in Africa and Iraq, which are on the table for expansion.


- International tourism remains uncertain

However, the outlook for international tourism remains highly uncertain due to still widespread travel restrictions with sustained impact on tourism-dependent economies.

"The picture for 2020 is diverse. While several countries in central Europe and the Baltic states performed well relative to many advanced European economies thanks to a strong rebound in exports of goods, economies heavily reliant on tourism took a hard hit," EBRD Chief Economist, Beata Javorcik, was quoted as saying. "And in countries afflicted by challenging economic circumstances prior to the pandemic, Covid-19 only compounded the existing problems."

She said that although the revised forecasts give reasons to be optimistic, huge uncertainty remains with regards to the path of the COVID-19 Delta variant which poses particularly large risks for countries that have made less progress with vaccinations and for economies highly reliant on international tourism.

The bank said foreign direct investment in most of the EBRD regions remains far below their pre-crisis levels and fiscal vulnerabilities have increased as large stimulus packages raised public debt in the EBRD regions by an average of 11 percentage points of GDP.

"In many economies, public debt is now at levels last seen during the transition recession of the early 1990s and may rise further. While bankruptcies have so far remained contained owing to extensive policy support, vulnerabilities may surface when government support measures are withdrawn," the banks said in the report, warning that forecasts are highly sensitive to the path of COVID-19 infections, assumptions related to government policies, and effectiveness of actions to limit persistent economic damage.

By Nuran Erkul Kaya

Anadolu Agency

energy@aa.com.tr




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US ready to fund viable nuclear energy projects in Türkiye, official says

- Washington and Ankara are ‘deep friends and good partners,’ says US State Department advisor
08.07.2025 Nuclear , Energy Diplomacy

Türkiye's daily power consumption down 7% on July 4

- Electricity exports amount to 13,762 megawatt-hours and imports total 2,920 megawatt-hours
08.07.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Saturday, July 5

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.80 billion Turkish liras
04.07.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption down 1.5 % on July 3

- Electricity exports amount to 13,479 megawatt-hours and imports total 3,415 megawatt-hours
04.07.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Friday, July 4

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.91 billion Turkish liras
03.07.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption up 0.2% on July 2

- Electricity exports amount to 13,681 megawatt-hours and imports total 3,309 megawatt-hours
03.07.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's Akkuyu nuclear plant attracts investor interest as energy production nears

- Selection of potential partners must be approved by Türkiye under the Russia-Türkiye agreement, project's top executive says
05.07.2025 Nuclear

Spot market electricity prices for Thursday, July 3

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.62 billion Turkish liras
02.07.2025 Electricity

Akkuyu Nuclear says commissioning underway for 1st reactor unit

- 'We plan to carry out preparatory work this year to connect the first unit's switchyard to the electrical transmission system,' Anton Dedusenko tells Anadolu
03.07.2025 Nuclear , General

Türkiye's daily power consumption up 4.4% on July 1

- Electricity exports amount to 14,406 megawatt-hours and imports total 2,515 megawatt-hours
02.07.2025 Electricity

International Atomic Energy Agency ready to 'accompany' African countries on nuclear journey

- Developing nuclear energy requires infrastructure, capacity building, says agency head
02.07.2025 Nuclear

Experts, policymakers explore ways for Africa’s energy transition

- Nuclear Energy Innovation Summit for Africa opens with focus on exploring potential of small modular and micro reactors in accelerating energy transition
03.07.2025 Nuclear

Spot market electricity prices for Wednesday, July 2

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.78 billion Turkish liras
02.07.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption up 11.6% on June 30

- Electricity exports amount to 13,941 megawatt-hours and imports total 12,565 megawatt-hours
02.07.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Tuesday, July 1

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 2.08 billion Turkish liras
30.06.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption down 12.4% on June 29

- Electricity exports amount to 14,301 megawatt-hours and imports total 11,740 megawatt-hours
01.07.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Monday, June 30

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.84 billion Turkish liras
29.06.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption down 5% on June 28

- Electricity exports amount to 13,621 megawatt-hours and imports total 14,528 megawatt-hours
29.06.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Sunday, June 29

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 878 million Turkish liras
28.06.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption up 0.74% on June 27

- Electricity exports amount to 14,347 megawatt-hours and imports total 10,993 megawatt-hours
30.06.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's licensed power generation up 11% in April

- Installed electricity capacity rises by 1.9% in April compared to same month in 2024
28.06.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Saturday, June 28

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.67 billion Turkish liras
27.06.2025 Electricity

Candidate region selected for Türkiye's first YEKA floating solar power plant

- Floating solar panels improve feasibility for hydroelectric plants operating below capacity and improve efficiency of transmission lines
27.06.2025 Electricity , Solar

Türkiye's daily power consumption up 2.6% on June 26

- Electricity exports amount to 14,360 megawatt-hours and imports total 14,712 megawatt-hours
27.06.2025 Electricity

Global renewable expansion lags behind energy demand growth: Report

- Electrification is accelerating, particularly in developing economies, while all major energy sources hit all-time consumption highs in 2024, says industry report
27.06.2025 Electricity , Natural Gas , Renewable

Spot market electricity prices for Friday, June 27

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.97 billion Turkish liras
26.06.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption up 2.6% on June 25

- Electricity exports amount to 13,648 megawatt-hours and imports total 16,365 megawatt-hours
26.06.2025 Electricity

UN nuclear chief urges inspections in Iran

- Grossi says cooperation with International Atomic Energy Agency is key to resolving nuclear dispute
26.06.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Thursday, June 26

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 2 billion Turkish liras
25.06.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption up 4% on June 24

- Electricity exports amount to 13,498 megawatt-hours and imports total 15,533 megawatt-hours
25.06.2025 Electricity , Finance

Türkiye's daily power consumption up 16.2% on June 23

- Electricity exports amount to 13,845 megawatt-hours and imports total 16,929 megawatt-hours
24.06.2025 Electricity

Iran fires new salvo of missiles on Israel as conflict escalates

- Army says missile barrage triggered air-raid sirens in central, northern Israel
23.06.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Tuesday, June 24

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.94 billion Turkish liras
23.06.2025 Electricity

Iran retaliation would be 'worst mistake' ever made, warns US secretary of state

- Marco Rubio says Tehran completely 'vulnerable' after US nuclear strikes
23.06.2025 Nuclear

Türkiye's daily power consumption down 12.5% on June 22

- Electricity exports amount to 15,276 megawatt-hours and imports total 13,543 megawatt-hours
23.06.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Monday, June 23

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.60 billion Turkish liras
23.06.2025 Electricity , General

Türkiye's daily power consumption down 5% on June 21

- Electricity exports amount to 14,515 megawatt-hours and imports total 16,763 megawatt-hours
23.06.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Sunday, June 22

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 920.20 million Turkish liras
21.06.2025 Electricity

Türkiye's daily power consumption down 0.05% on June 20

- Electricity exports amount to 13,629 megawatt-hours and imports total 17,617 megawatt-hours
21.06.2025 Electricity

Spot market electricity prices for Saturday, June 21

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 1.38 billion Turkish liras
20.06.2025 Electricity

Global renewable energy capacity surges 377% over past decade

- Growing awareness of climate change, combined with lower costs for wind and solar equipment and robust policy incentives, help boost global renewable capacity
23.06.2025 Electricity , Finance , Renewable

Russia, Kazakhstan agree on nuclear power plant roadmap

- Russian atomic energy corporation Rosatom to lead international consortium tasked with building a large-capacity nuclear power plant
23.06.2025 Electricity
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