ISTANBUL
Iran’s decision to shut down the Strait of Hormuz following joint US and Israeli airstrikes has sent shockwaves through global shipping markets, with analysts warning of sustained disruption across energy and container trade.
The closure will hit the oil and gas markets hardest, Rico Luman, senior economist on transport, logistics and the auto industry at ING Group, told Anadolu, noting that the strait handles about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG).
The impact is already visible in market reactions, with tanker freight rates rising in recent weeks, he said.
Prices are expected to continue rising as a growing backlog of tankers anchored outside the strait reduces available vessel capacity, he added. Insurance premiums are also surging as war-related risk clauses are activated.
The Strait of Hormuz, located at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, connects Middle Eastern oil and LNG exports to global markets via the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean.
Major producers including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Iraq and Qatar rely heavily on the passage. European markets and major Asian economies such as China, India, Japan and South Korea depend on it for energy imports.
Container shipping also under pressure
The disruption is not limited to energy cargo.
Luman said container shipping is also being affected, with major carriers withdrawing from the region entirely. Routes through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal are now being avoided, reversing the cautious return of operators such as Maersk that had only recently resumed some regional operations.
With war-related insurance clauses driving premiums higher, he said, many shippers may avoid Middle Eastern transit points altogether.
Rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope at the southern tip of Africa is likely to become the new normal in the longer term, he said.
That extended detour will significantly increase operational costs and disrupt supply chains, Luman added, particularly for shipments heading to Türkiye and the broader Mediterranean region.
He warned global markets to brace for extended journey times and chronic supply uncertainty as regional instability combines with higher fuel prices to push overall shipping costs upward.
Container freight rates, which had previously been declining, are now expected to reverse sharply following the latest developments, he added.