LONDON
Estonia’s foreign intelligence chief has said there is currently no indication that Russia intends to attack any of the Baltic states or NATO “more broadly.”
In an interview with Estonia’s public broadcaster ERR on Monday, Foreign Intelligence Service Director General Kaupo Rosin said: “What we're still seeing today is that Russia currently has no intention of attacking any of the Baltic states or NATO more broadly.”
He said Estonia’s task was to ensure the situation “remains that way,” noting that Russia has adjusted its behavior following Western and NATO responses to recent incidents in the region.
“So far, it's still clear that Russia respects NATO and is currently trying to avoid any open conflict,” Rosin said.
He pointed to a series of incidents over the past year, including damage to undersea cables, drone incursions into NATO airspace and aircraft violations.
According to Rosin, Russia’s reaction to NATO’s responses suggests a desire to prevent escalation.
“Following various incidents – starting with the undersea cables some time ago or the different drone incursions into NATO airspace or aircraft violations – what we've seen is that, in response to reactions from the West or NATO, Russia has taken various measures to prevent such incidents from happening again in the future,” he said.
The intelligence chief added that drone flight paths over Ukraine had been adjusted to minimize risk, while Russian aircraft over the Baltic Sea were now “very carefully monitoring their flight paths… to avoid triggering incidents.”
Rosin also said there had been no new cable-related incidents since NATO launched its Baltic Sentry mission in the region.
However, he cautioned that risks remained high due to ongoing military activity and the war in Ukraine. “In theory, such events are still possible, but at the moment we don't see any indication that Russia is deliberately trying to escalate.”
Addressing concerns about Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers, Rosin said Moscow’s main interest was preserving freedom of movement in the Baltic Sea to protect vital oil revenues.
He noted that Western actions, including a French operation to board a tanker, showed the fleet was “not entirely untouchable.”
Looking ahead, Rosin warned that a peace settlement in Ukraine that did not clearly amount to a Russian defeat could increase risks for the region.
"It likely increases the risks for us, especially if Russia grows more confident and emboldened. That's certainly a point of concern. Even if some kind of truce, peace deal or frozen conflict emerges — if it gets that far — Russia would still need to maintain a significant military presence against Ukraine, which would continue to tie up its resources," he said.