With US President Donald Trump signaling that a deal with Iran could be reached within days, analysts say Washington is under growing economic and political pressure to bring the war to an end.
Surging fuel prices, tensions with Gulf allies, mounting domestic criticism and an upcoming summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping are narrowing the administration’s room for maneuver as the conflict continues to disrupt global energy markets.
“Trump does seem eager to end the war with Iran, but he faces major constraints to do so,” Evan Cooper, a research analyst in the Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program at the Stimson Center, told Anadolu.
Cooper said Trump is under pressure domestically not to appear weak by making major concessions to Iran, particularly regarding Tehran’s influence over the Strait of Hormuz or the future of its nuclear program.
"There are also major challenges with the conflicting desires of Gulf partner states and Israel that limit paths towards a sustainable agreement to end the war," he said.
Fox News reported Wednesday that Trump believes a potential agreement with Iran could be finalized within “a week.” Yet the following day, Iran and Israel exchanged fire near the Strait of Hormuz, underlining the fragility of any diplomatic progress.
Jack Clayton, a US foreign policy analyst, said Trump’s negotiating style has complicated efforts to de-escalate the conflict.
"Whilst negotiations can often start with excessive demands to climb down to terms that remain acceptable, Trump’s dogmatism has contributed to the war starting in the first place and risks resuming it if there aren’t compromises reached by both sides,” he said.
Another major political challenge, Clayton said, is ending the conflict on terms that do not make the military campaign appear to have failed.
Analysts say Trump also faces a political balancing act -- ending the conflict without appearing to retreat on Iran’s nuclear program.
Clayton noted that Trump cannot politically afford a deal that appears weaker than former President Barack Obama’s 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran, which Trump repeatedly criticized during both his presidential campaigns and his time in office.
Analysts say the economic fallout from the conflict has become one of the strongest drivers behind Washington’s push for de-escalation.
The war has severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a corridor that handles roughly 20% of global oil shipments, triggering fuel price spikes across international markets.
For the Trump administration, rising gasoline prices risk becoming a major domestic liability.
“Clearly the Trump administration did not anticipate Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, and it has helped Iran become a stronger economic power than before the war began,” Clayton said.
“Trump is very wary of the markets and energy prices, which is why he makes various statements to try to calm the markets.”
Fuel prices in the US have risen by around 50% since the war began, increasing pressure on American consumers already grappling with high living costs.
Clayton said Trump is acutely aware of the political consequences of inflation and rising fuel prices after cost-of-living concerns became a defining issue during former President Joe Biden’s administration and contributed significantly to the Democrats’ defeat in the 2024 election.
Cooper said the political costs of the war are becoming increasingly visible.
“This war was never popular, but rising fuel costs are starting to make the consequences of the conflict far more evident to Americans,” he said.
The conflict has also drawn criticism from prominent conservative figures including Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly, who have accused Trump of abandoning his pledge to avoid costly foreign wars.
A Washington Post-ABC-Ipsos poll released in late April found that 61% of respondents believed US military involvement in Iran was a mistake, while 44% said they had cut back on driving because of rising fuel costs.
With US midterm elections approaching in November, analysts say Republicans are increasingly concerned that the war could become a political burden.
The Washington Post-ABC-Ipsos poll found Trump’s disapproval rating has climbed to 62%, the highest level across his two presidential terms.
Clayton said even a rapid de-escalation may not immediately reverse the political damage.
"Even if he is only starting to take actions to de-escalate the war, it may not help his and the Republicans' mid-term prospects because there are always time-lags in economic performance,” he said. “It will take time for economic conditions to improve -- if they even do.”
Cooper, however, said Trump appears less focused on the broader political implications for Republicans than on projecting his own individual strength.
"Trump firmly believes that Republicans should support him no matter what, and he does not owe them changing his policies to make their lives easier,” he said.
Still, Cooper noted growing anxiety within Republican circles over how the war’s fallout could affect vulnerable congressional races.
“If we see some Republicans in close races start to condemn the war with Iran, we will know that they feel like they are out of choices and need to save themselves by criticizing Trump,” he said.
Instead, he said many would like the focus to shift to attacking Cuba, which would be less costly.
“I am skeptical that this evaluation is correct but there is pressure on the administration to quickly make the pivot so that Iran is not dominating headlines come the fall,” he added.
Trump is also facing growing international pressure ahead of his planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping next week.
Analysts say the White House would prefer to avoid entering high-level talks with Beijing while the Iran conflict continues to destabilize global energy markets.
"Trump would like the summit to be squarely focused on trade and finding ways to bolster the US economy, including by easing the trade war," Cooper said.
With the Iran war causing immense global disruptions, he argued that Xi has an opportunity to come across as the more responsible leader by pushing Trump to end the conflict, which would position the US as the lesser superpower of the two.
Clayton said China may also seek to use the crisis to deepen diplomatic and economic ties with Gulf states and Iran. He pointed to growing Chinese interest in expanding infrastructure and trade routes connecting the Gulf to the Red Sea -- and bypassing the Strait of Hormuz -- as part of Beijing’s broader Belt and Road Initiative.
Analysts say pressure from Gulf countries is further complicating Washington’s calculations, although regional allies remain divided over how the war should end.
According to media reports, Trump abruptly halted a US military plan this week to escort commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz after Saudi Arabia refused to allow American warplanes to use its airspace or military bases for the operation.
Cooper said the Saudi position reflects growing frustration within the Gulf over the escalating risks posed by the conflict.
“The Saudis sent a strong message of their displeasure of how the conflict is being managed by refusing base access,” he said.
At the same time, Cooper said Israel and the United Arab Emirates appear more aligned in wanting Washington to maintain pressure on Iran and avoid a deal that would leave Tehran regionally influential.
Iranian drone attacks on Gulf states could also push regional governments toward closer diplomatic and economic ties with China, Clayton said.
“What was once regarded as essential for Gulf state security has now made them vulnerable because they are being attacked in this war too,” he said.
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