Economists expect Turkish Central Bank to keep policy rate unchanged at 37% this week

Economists expect the Turkish Central Bank to keep its policy rate unchanged at 37% at its monetary policy meeting this week, according to an Anadolu survey released Monday.

The survey, conducted ahead of the Turkish Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Thursday, June 11, was completed with the participation of 20 economists.

Seventeen economists forecast that the bank will leave the one-week repo auction rate unchanged, while three expect a 300-basis-point hike.

The median expectation for the June meeting was that the policy rate would remain at 37%.

The median forecast for the year-end policy rate among survey participants was 35%, indicating that monetary easing may resume later this year if disinflation gains traction.

The central bank kept its policy rate unchanged at 37% at its April meeting, while also maintaining the overnight borrowing and lending rates at 35.5% and 40%, respectively.

The bank’s June decision comes after annual consumer inflation in Türkiye rose to 32.61% in May, with monthly inflation at 1.71%. Inflation had remained a key factor shaping expectations over the timing and pace of future policy normalization.

The Turkish Central Bank's 2026 monetary policy calendar shows that the June rate decision will be followed by the summary of the meeting on June 18. The bank is also scheduled to hold policy meetings on July 23, Sept. 10, Oct. 22, and Dec. 10 this year.