Experts and former diplomats discussed NATO’s future, European security architecture, and Türkiye’s strategic autonomy at a panel held Saturday in Istanbul ahead of the alliance’s 2026 summit, scheduled for July 7-8 in Ankara.
The event, titled NATO 2026: A View from Istanbul on the Road to the Ankara Summit, was jointly organized by the Turkish Atlantic Council and the Youth Section of the Atlantic Treaty Association (YATA) Türkiye.
Opening remarks were delivered by Turkish Atlantic Council President Mehmet Fatih Ceylan and YATA Türkiye President Tuna Tanman.
Ceylan said the Ankara summit would be important in terms of whether NATO can address growing differences between the US and its European allies.
He recalled that Istanbul hosted a NATO summit in 2004, and said the key question ahead of the Ankara summit was whether Ankara could help “bring together the two sides of the Atlantic.”
He said the summit’s success would depend largely on whether it could ease, or at least partially repair, what he described as a difficult rift between Washington and European allies.
Ceylan said expectations from the summit should remain realistic, adding that NATO was facing one of the most serious internal crises in its history.
He said the current crisis should not be attributed only to the second term of US President Donald Trump, noting that tensions in transatlantic ties had roots going back to the early 2000s.
Ceylan pointed to the US withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, the 2003 Iraq War, burden-sharing disputes, the Afghanistan withdrawal, AUKUS, and Washington’s growing focus on the Indo-Pacific as developments that shaped the current debate within the alliance.
He also said Russia’s war against Ukraine had deeply shaken European security, while forcing European countries to confront gaps in their own defense capabilities.
Ceylan said Europe’s efforts to strengthen its defense should not exclude NATO allies that are not EU members, including Türkiye, the UK, and Norway.
He said Ankara should not be left outside debates on Europe’s security, stressing that Türkiye is a key European actor despite not being a member of the EU.
Tanman said discussing NATO in 2026 also meant discussing the future of global security, as threats now go beyond traditional military concepts.
“The first front of war is no longer always the border line,” he said, pointing to cyberattacks, energy infrastructure, artificial intelligence, food security, migration, and climate change as part of the broader security agenda.
Tanman noted that the Ankara summit’s significance went beyond diplomatic protocol because NATO is going through one of the most complex strategic periods since its establishment.
He said Türkiye’s role within NATO extends beyond its military capacity, citing its position in the Black Sea, the Middle Corridor, the alliance’s southern flank, the Balkans, the Caucasus, and the Middle East.
“Europe’s security cannot be considered separately from the Black Sea, and the Black Sea’s security cannot be considered separately from Türkiye,” Tanman said.
Following the opening speeches, two panels were held under the titles The Future of NATO and the European Security Architecture and NATO and Türkiye’s Strategic Autonomy.
Speaking at the first panel, Ayse Kucuk of Istanbul Gelisim University said Europe’s ability to defend itself without the US remained limited, particularly because of its dependence on Washington in nuclear security.
Kucuk said the burden-sharing debate within NATO was not new and had continued since the Cold War, but that current conditions were pushing Europe more strongly toward strategic autonomy.
Serhat Guvenc of Kadir Has University said Russia’s actions since 2014 had helped restore NATO’s role as a military alliance after years of searching for a new mission.
Guvenc said Russia remains the main threat in NATO’s strategic outlook, while China is treated as a challenge. He added that the US itself has become a source of uncertainty for allies due to Washington’s unpredictability.
Megan Gisclon of the Istanbul Policy Center said Europe faced growing pressure to develop a more sustainable security approach based on its own capacities, as the US strategic focus shifted and Washington’s commitment to Europe became more uncertain.
She said calls for European countries to increase defense spending and take greater responsibility for their own security did not begin with the current US administration, but had become more urgent under changing transatlantic conditions.
Gisclon also said Europe’s efforts to strengthen its own defense capacity should be seen as part of a broader search for balance within NATO, as allies try to adapt to shifting US priorities while preserving the alliance’s cohesion.
At the second panel, Fahri Erenel of Istinye University said the Ankara summit would take place at a time of multiple crises, declining trust in political systems, and ongoing conflicts across several regions.
Erenel said Türkiye’s hosting of the summit would carry geopolitical importance, pointing to its role in the Black Sea, the Russia-Ukraine war, food and energy security, and regional diplomacy.
He also said the summit could provide an opportunity to showcase Türkiye’s growing defense industry capabilities to NATO leaders.
Emir Abbas Gurbuz, a researcher at the Turkish Atlantic Council, said the debate within NATO had shifted from concerns over “fragmentation of the alliance” to the more neutral concept of strategic autonomy.
Gurbuz said countries such as Türkiye, France, and the UK have historically pursued foreign policies shaped by their own national interests while remaining part of the alliance.
He said Türkiye has become one of the NATO members most associated with strategic autonomy in recent years, citing its policy during the Russia-Ukraine war.
Türkiye’s ability to support Ukraine while keeping channels open with Russia helped it become a trusted actor for both sides, he said, adding that this also strengthened Ankara’s role as a country able to maintain communication channels in times of crisis.
Gurbuz said the Ankara summit would be critical because of uncertainty over what the US administration would seek from allies and how tensions between Europe and the US would be managed.
The 2026 NATO summit will be held in Ankara on July 7-8.
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