The Iran war thrust Iraq's powerful Iran-linked militias back into the spotlight.
Throughout the conflict, armed groups operating from Iraq claimed attacks against US interests, carrying out drone and missile strikes linked to the wider confrontation, underscoring how quickly Iraq can be drawn into regional conflicts despite government efforts to stay on the sidelines.
The violence also highlighted one of the biggest challenges facing Iraq's new Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, who has made bringing weapons under state control a central priority of his administration.
Ibrahim al-Marashi, an associate professor of modern Iraqi history at California State University, San Marcos, said Iraq's leadership faces an increasingly delicate balancing act.
"Zaidi will have to balance between a chastened US failing to conduct regime change in Iran and an Iran that will now lash out at any attempt of Trump using Iraq as a launch pad to destabilize Iran," he told Anadolu.
The challenge has taken on urgency after months of regional conflict. The US and Israel carried out strikes on groups in Iraq, and by mid-May Iraqi militias had also claimed or carried out as many as 5,200 strikes in Gulf countries as well as in Jordan and Syria, according to The Atlantic. Saudi Arabia reportedly indicated that around half of the drone attacks on the kingdom came from inside Iraq.
Six American service members were killed in March when a US Air Force refueling aircraft crashed in Iraqi airspace – accounting for nearly half of the 13 US military deaths linked to the Iran war. While US and Iraqi officials described the incident as an accident, a coalition of Iran-linked Iraqi armed groups claimed responsibility.
In April, the US suspended parts of its security cooperation with Iraq and halted cash shipments generated by oil sales.
"The US wants to ensure that Iran-backed groups will not attack US interests in the region or facilitate Iranian economic activities through Iraq," the senior Iraq analyst at the International Crisis Group Lahib Higel told Anadolu.
The issue has landed on the desk of a new prime minister with little previous national political profile.
At 40, Zaidi became Iraq's youngest prime minister when he took office in May after emerging as a compromise candidate following weeks of political deadlock.
In January, US President Donald Trump threatened to withdraw US support for the country if Shiite politician Nuri Kamal al-Maliki returned as the prime minister, splitting politicians between those insisting on sovereign political choice and others fearing international isolation.
Since taking office, Zaidi has made the consolidation of state authority and the integration of armed groups into official institutions one of his government's top priorities.
"Zaidi has so far sought to meet US demands to control the Iran-backed militias,” Higel said. “Whether he succeeds will define the bilateral relations."
Iraqi authorities are reportedly developing mechanisms to integrate members of armed groups into state institutions as individuals rather than organized units, aiming to prevent factional structures from simply being transferred into the military and security apparatus, according to broadcaster Alhurra.
The issue was central to discussions this week between Zaidi and Tom Barrack, the US ambassador to Türkiye, whom President Donald Trump recently appointed as special envoy for both Iraq and Syria.
Higel said Barrack's expanded role reflects Washington's broader effort to pull Iraq away from Iranian influence and strengthen its integration with regional partners including Türkiye and Syria.
"The extension of Barrack's portfolio to include Iraq, in addition to Syria and Türkiye, follows the administration's pursuit to bring Iraq out of the Iranian orbit and closer to Syria and Türkiye," she said.
On Monday, Barrack met Zaidi and the sides reiterated support for Iraq's efforts to ensure the "complete disarmament and disbandment" of armed groups operating outside state authority, to place all weapons under government control and “ensure that Iraqi territory cannot be used by any side to threaten regional peace,” according to a joint statement released Tuesday.
Analysts say the relationship extends beyond security matters.
The joint statement highlighted plans to finalize operating licenses for Starlink, advance negotiations with Chevron on oil projects, facilitate the return of US energy companies to Iraq and move forward with efforts to rehabilitate the Kirkuk-Baniyas oil pipeline.
Iraq-US business ties center on a roughly $12 billion annual bilateral trade relationship heavily dominated by the energy sector.
According to estimates, crude oil production from Iraq's southern fields had fallen by 70% by March, averaging 1.3 million barrels per day compared with 4.3 million barrels before the Iran war began.
Asaib Ahl al-Haq, one of Iraq’s most prominent and powerful Shia political and military forces, said earlier this month that it will form a committee to begin disengaging from the Popular Mobilization Forces, which comprises around 67 primarily Shia armed factions, and place its weapons under state control.
The announcement follows a similar move by Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who dissolved his Peace Brigades and aligned them with the state.
The Kataib Imam Ali faction has also indicated a willingness to pursue a similar path.
Earlier this month, the US also praised Iraq’s efforts to place all weapons under exclusive state control, describing the position of the country’s largest parliamentary bloc on the matter as a “qualitative shift toward consolidating independence and sovereignty.”
However, analysts caution that integrating armed groups into state institutions will be far more complicated than securing public declarations.
Chatham House analyst Renad Mansour recently wrote that the armed groups most invested in Iraq's political system appear more willing to cooperate with Baghdad's plans, but others remain resistant.
Groups more deeply embedded in Iran's regional network, including Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba, have said they will continue pursuing their own military agendas regardless of government policy.
"There is a risk that Asaib Ahl al-Haq won't relinquish arms completely unless other groups do as well," Higel added.
Marashi described the recent developments as “extremely significant” but warned that formal integration alone does not guarantee meaningful state control.
“The key question is whether the Iraqi government and its allies have both the ability and the will to confront these groups,” wrote Mansour, pointing to the recent killing of a government intelligence officer by a drone strike, which Iraq’s foreign minister attributed to “factions from the inside.”
“Confrontation will likely be dangerous,” he added.
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