• Sharp rise in rice prices, tariffs, stagnant wages have fueled voter frustration, with Prime Minister Ishiba under pressure

• Far-right Sanseito party has gained ground with “Japanese First” message, sparking concerns over rising nationalism

ISTANBUL

As Japan prepares to vote in its upper house election on Sunday, a mix of economic anxiety, rising nationalism and growing discontent with the US alliance has turned what might have been a routine vote into a potential inflection point.

A right-wing party with a “Japanese First” message is surging in the polls, food prices are spiking, and Tokyo’s traditionally stable ties with Washington are fraying under the weight of unilateral US tariffs, with no deal in sight.

Many observers blame Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru’s “complacent” leadership and stagnant economic policies for his party’s waning fortunes.

“We are basically at the point where it is no longer sustainable,” Japanese academic Saul Takahashi told Anadolu. “Inflation is starting to bite – in particular, due to a number of factors, the price of rice has skyrocketed – and, naturally, people blame the guys in charge.”

Takahashi warned that a further rise in xenophobic rhetoric, led by parties like the far-right Sanseito, could threaten both Japan’s domestic stability and long-term economic needs.

What’s at stake?

Some 104 million voters are registered to cast their ballots to elect half of the upper house of Japan’s parliament in a contest that could shake the fragile ruling coalition and shape the country’s direction on defense, trade and immigration.

The House of Councilors has 250 seats in total, half of which are elected every three years for a six-year term. Voting will run from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. (2200 GMT Saturday to 1100 GMT Sunday), with initial results expected to start trickling in later the same day.

Ishiba’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its junior coalition partner Komeito are already weakened, governing as a minority after losing their lower house majority in the previous general election.

A poor showing on Sunday would likely intensify pressure on Ishiba and may trigger calls for a snap election.

Latest surveys show the LDP with 20.9% support, followed by the opposition Constitutional Democratic Party at 9.1%. The far-right Sanseito party, campaigning on a “Japanese First” platform, has drawn 6.9%.

The Democratic Party for the People polled at 6.1%, while Komeito stood at 4.9%. A handful of other parties are also likely to earn between 4% and less than 1% of the vote.

Crucially, 38.2% of voters say they support no particular party – a wildcard that could significantly shape the outcome.

Inflation and rice crisis loom large

Economic frustration has dominated the campaign, with inflation at 3.5% – well above the Bank of Japan’s 2% target – and wages stagnating. Rice prices nearly doubled in the year leading up to May 2025, becoming a flashpoint for public anger.

Prices began rising after the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war disrupted global supply chains. A heat wave in 2023 decimated the harvest, and panic buying following an earthquake alert further strained supplies.

Though Japan has long controlled rice production to balance demand, the government underestimated needs in 2023 and 2024.

Criticism escalated after Farm Minister Taku Eto joked that he “never bought rice” because his supporters gave him plenty. He resigned in May and was replaced by Shinjiro Koizumi, who quickly released reserves in the hope of curbing prices.

Observers blame Prime Minister Ishiba’s economic management for the ruling party’s decline.

“Ishiba is from the old school of the LDP – he values consensus, avoids taking strong positions, and has a generally complacent attitude towards the corruption-related scandals that always seem to plague the LDP,” said Takahashi, a professor at Osaka Jogakuin University.

“The populace accepted that style as long as the economy was growing, living standards were rising, and people could feel the country was on the right track.”

He added that a pattern of short-term policymaking has driven Japan’s national debt to “historic proportions.”

Tensions with US fuel uncertainty

Japan’s long-standing alliance with the US has also become a potent undercurrent in the election.

The Ishiba administration has struggled to shield the economy from tariffs imposed by President Trump, particularly on automobile exports – a cornerstone of Japan’s manufacturing sector.

If Tokyo and Washington fail to reach a trade deal by Aug. 1, all Japanese exports are expected to face a 25% tariff. The Ishiba administration has lobbied for their removal and reportedly proposed a $400-billion sovereign-style fund to support American industry.

Although the Japanese prime minister has spoken to Trump several times, including one in-person meeting, negotiations have yet to yield any results.

“The Japanese political elite has essentially spent 80 years basing their policies and worldview only on Japan being a junior partner of the US,” said Takahashi. “Like in most countries allied to the US, the political elite in Japan has been horrified with Trump’s lack of loyalty, and in particular feel betrayed by the recent announcements on tariffs.”

He added that while Tokyo now faces pressure to chart a more independent course, “no Japanese party could seriously think there should be fundamental revisions to the US alliance.”

Rise of nationalism sparks concern

One of the most striking shifts in this campaign has been the rapid rise of the far-right Sanseito party, whose nationalist message has resonated with disaffected voters.

“The Japanese people have been spoon-fed overtly anti-Chinese and anti-Korean, nationalistic narratives for decades – so it was only a matter of time that a party like Sanseito came to the forefront,” Takahashi said.

Though still small in size, Sanseito is “punching well above its weight,” he said. Its rhetoric has already influenced government policies, including stricter measures toward foreign residents.

“If, as predicted, Sanseito manages to increase its seats and its influence, we can expect increased xenophobia and a backtracking in policies aimed at attracting foreign laborers,” he said. “Depending on how dramatic this backtracking is, this could potentially be disastrous.”

He warned that Japan is facing a demographic and economic crunch that makes such policies counterproductive.

“The anemic economy, ballooning national debt and the shrinking population all point to an urgent need for increased, long-term immigration. Unfortunately, most Japanese have been duped into complacency and seem to think we can survive without coexisting with people from other races and cultures. This is a big mistake,” he said.