Global commodity markets have been reshaped in the two months since the Iran war began, with energy, fertilizer and some industrial raw materials posting sharp gains as disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz continue to feed supply concerns.
The strait remains central to the shock. In 2024, around 20 million barrels per day of oil flowed through the waterway, equivalent to about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
The International Energy Agency also says the strait carries around 20 million barrels per day, about 25% of global seaborne oil trade, while Qatari and Emirati LNG flows through the route represent about 19% of global LNG trade.
The impact has been most visible in energy markets, where crude oil and European gas prices have risen sharply since the pre-war period.
Fertilizer markets have also come under heavy pressure because the Gulf is a major supply hub for urea, ammonia and sulfur, while some metals have moved unevenly as investors balance war risks, inflation concerns and demand expectations.
Oil
Brent crude futures rose from about $72.6 per barrel on Feb. 27, the day before the war began, to around $117.6 on Wednesday, April 29, marking an increase of nearly 62%. During the two-month period, Brent crude peaked at $120 per barrel right after Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
US benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures also climbed from $67.1 per barrel to about $105.5 over the same period, up more than 57%.
The increase reflects fears over restricted tanker traffic through Hormuz, higher war-risk costs for shipping and the possibility that Gulf crude exports could face further disruption if the conflict escalates.
Natural gas
Global natural gas prices also rose sharply as LNG flows from the Gulf became less reliable.
Dutch TTF natural gas futures increased from about €31.90 ($37.50) per megawatt-hour on Feb. 27 to around €46.95 on Wednesday, a rise of nearly 47%.
Meanwhile, LNG prices in Japan/Korea soared 55% to $16.48 per million British thermal units (MMBTU), from around $10.6 per MMBTU.
The move reflects Europe and Asia's exposure to global LNG competition. Any disruption to Qatari or Emirati LNG shipments through Hormuz tightens supply for both Europe and Asia, increasing the risk of cargo diversions and higher spot prices.
Gold and silver
Precious metals have moved in the opposite direction after touching high levels before the war.
Gold fell from about $5,275 per ounce on Feb. 27 to around $4,540, a decline of more than 14%.
Silver dropped from around $93.8 per ounce to $71.56 over the same period, down nearly 24%.
The retreat suggests that safe-haven demand has been partly offset by inflation and interest-rate concerns, as higher energy prices raise the risk that central banks will keep monetary policy tighter for longer.
Aluminum and palladium
Industrial metals showed a mixed trend.
Aluminum rose from about $3,150 per ton before the war to around $3,485, gaining nearly 11%. The increase reflects higher energy costs and concerns over supply chains, as aluminum production is highly electricity-intensive.
Palladium, however, fell from about $1,825 per ounce to $1,465, a decline of more than 19%.
The drop points to weaker demand expectations, especially from the auto sector, where palladium is widely used in catalytic converters. It also shows that war-related risk premiums have not lifted all industrial metals equally.
Fertilizers: urea and ammonia
Fertilizer prices have been among the clearest transmission channels from the Iran war to food production costs.
Urea prices have risen sharply, with US prices up more than 47% from mid-February levels. The latest global index price stands near $687 per ton.
Ammonia prices also rose, with the average increasing from an implied pre-war level of about $627 per ton to around $725, a gain of more than 16%.
The increases are tied to higher natural gas costs, shipping disruptions and the Gulf’s role as a key exporter of fertilizer and feedstock products. Higher fertilizer prices can feed into planting costs and eventually food inflation, especially in import-dependent countries.
Sulfur, methanol
Sulfur prices have posted one of the strongest gains among industrial inputs linked to the Gulf.
Prices rose from about $570.5 per ton in early March to around $923.7, an increase of more than 62%.
Sulfur is widely used in fertilizer and chemical production, especially for phosphate fertilizers. Supply disruptions or delays in Gulf exports can therefore affect agricultural input markets beyond crude oil and natural gas.
Methanol prices have also gained in the two-month period
The latest price stood around $466.4 per ton, up about 47% from an implied level near $317.
Helium
Helium pricing is less transparent than oil, gas or metals because much of the market is based on contracts rather than liquid spot trading.
The US Geological Survey listed a 2025 base price of around $330 per thousand cubic feet, while a disclosed April 27 offtake agreement showed a price of about $285 per thousand cubic feet.
Because helium is critical for semiconductors, medical imaging, aerospace and advanced manufacturing, any sustained disruption to logistics or industrial gas supply chains can create pressure even when daily spot pricing is not visible.
Broader impact
The two-month price shift shows that the war has produced a targeted commodity shock rather than a uniform rally.
Oil, gas, fertilizers and sulfur have risen because they are directly exposed to Gulf shipping, energy feedstocks and export bottlenecks. Precious metals and some industrial metals have moved differently, reflecting demand concerns, interest-rate expectations and sector-specific fundamentals.
For import-dependent economies, the combined rise in oil, gas and fertilizer costs creates pressure on trade balances, transport costs, agricultural production and consumer prices. The risk is especially acute for countries reliant on Gulf energy and fertilizer supplies, where even partial disruption through the Strait of Hormuz can affect fuel, power and food costs at the same time.
