UK may have 'worst' death toll in Europe from COVID-19

LONDON

As the coronavirus pandemic continues to expand across the globe and the death toll steadily rises, the U.K. might become the worst-hit country in Europe, according to some experts.

The country has been in a lockdown for the past three weeks with police enforcement and social distancing measures in place to slow the spread of the virus.

Despite all this, the daily death toll has been near 1,000 for the past few days.

At least one expert thinks the country will lose many people and the total number of deaths by the end of the outbreak will be worse than two hard-hit countries, Italy and Spain.

Prof. Jeremy Farrar, the director of global charitable foundation the Wellcome Trust and a pandemics expert on the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies, said on Easter Sunday, the day the toll passed the 10,000 milestone, that the country is likely to have the worst death toll across the continent.

Speaking on BBC’s Andrew Marr Show, Farrar said the numbers of deaths and infected are still on the rise in the U.K.

"Numbers in the U.K. have continued to go up.

"I do hope that we are coming close to the numbers reducing. But yes, the U.K. is likely to be certainly one of the worst, if not the worst affected country in Europe," he said.

The Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle, Washington in the U.S. said the U.K. could see as many as 66,000 deaths by August but later revised the figure to 37,000.

Scientists at Imperial College London said in March that more than a quarter of a million Britons could die from the coronavirus if no restrictions on people’s movements were put in place, prompting the government to announce the lockdown.

High numbers

The government announced on Easter Sunday that 737 more people had died because of the virus -- a number slightly lower than previous two days’ tolls of 980 and 917.

However, the reported numbers were also lower on previous Sundays due to technicalities in reporting, and the totals given by the health authorities only reflect the losses in hospitals.

The first positive tests came out at the end of January, but the first fatalities occurred in early March in the U.K. and had mounted to 10,612 as of Easter Sunday.

As the numbers are escalating and Prime Minister Boris Johnson has been incapacitated because of his own battle against the coronavirus, critics of the government’s handling of the worst crisis since the World War II have been louder for the past week.

The Tory government is trying to maintain a dignified position despite its failure to provide the necessary personal protective equipment for health workers and test kits for the public -- a pledge made weeks ago -- but the opposition parties are now starting to call the parliament to convene without waiting on April 21, the date the members would return from Easter recess.

The daily press conferences are led by Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab, who is deputizing for Johnson for the time being, Health Secretary Matt Hancock and Chancellor of Exchequer Rishi Sunak, all of whom hope the numbers will start to drop in a much needed downward curve on graphs they are presenting to the public daily.

The number of those who believe that the government did not act responsibly to even think about the "herd immunity" approach when the virus first appeared in the country and a crucial three to four weeks in the fight against the coronavirus were lost is growing on social media.

Herd immunity is a concept in which the virus keeps spreading in a society and eventually people after being infected become immune to the outbreak.

Johnson had said the country might need to "take it on the chin" in a TV interview in the early stages of the fight against the virus.

The number of victims of the novel coronavirus is expected to rise further as the government’s chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance said it would be "a good outcome" if the country leaves the outbreak behind with 20,000 or less deaths.

Following its U-turn from the herd immunity tactics, the government maintained its warnings to the public to observe social distancing measures and urged people to stay home unless it is absolutely necessary to go out before announcing a total lockdown on March 21.

Johnson left the hospital Sunday and quickly released a "thank you" video.

The number of victims and the rate of spread for the next 10 days will determine whether the U.K. will become the worst-hit country in Europe.

How many more people will "take it on the chin" but lose their fight against the hidden enemy is still to be seen during this unprecedented health crisis.