Scottish leader says country ‘very close’ to independence, floats 2028 referendum

Scottish First Minister John Swinney said he believes supporters of Scottish independence can win a future referendum, suggesting a vote could take place as early as 2028.

“I think we are very close to winning Scottish independence. I just have to make it happen,” he said during the Scottish National Party’s (SNP) campaign ahead of next month’s Scottish Parliament election.

The center-left nationalist party is aiming to secure a majority of seats in the election, which it argues would strengthen calls for another referendum on Scotland’s future.

The last referendum in 2014 resulted in 55% voting to remain in the UK and 45% backing independence.

Swinney said circumstances have changed since then, particularly following the UK’s departure from the EU, and suggested voters may now be “less susceptible to the arguments made by the no side.”

“I have persuaded many people to change the way they vote," he said. "I think that is how we will land it, by being persuasive.”

Asked whether he believed he would win a referendum, he replied: “Yes.”

He said that, if successful, Scotland could become independent within around 18 months of a vote, potentially by the end of 2030.

He also said he would seek to lead the country thereafter, adding that he would stand to be “the first prime minister of an independent Scotland.”

Swinney also criticized opposition parties, describing Labour’s record in government as a “total and utter shambles” and claiming the Conservatives were “getting eaten alive by Reform”, while the Liberal Democrats were “irrelevant.”

Despite the political challenges, he said the SNP campaign was “very positive” and pledged to present a “hopeful and optimistic” case for independence.

He added that voters would consider his leadership when casting their ballots, saying he hoped to be seen as “a reliable character … who will always have Scotland’s interests at heart.”

A YouGov poll published on April 10 projected that the SNP is on track for a majority government in the May 7 vote.

It also forecast losses for the Conservatives and Labour and gains for far-right Reform UK, which could become the second-largest party.