- ‘The process must continue. Whenever there is a standstill, there will be a relapse,’ says Martin Kobler, Germany’s representative to the Palestinian territories in the 1990s
- UN Security Council endorsement would give Trump’s plan greater political weight and legal authority, says Kobler
BERLIN
The Gaza ceasefire that has brought optimism will not hold without sustained international pressure on Israel and a clear political horizon for Palestinian statehood, according to a former German ambassador who spent decades working on Middle East diplomacy.
Martin Kobler, who served as Germany’s representative to the Palestinian territories in the 1990s and later as ambassador to Egypt and Iraq, said in an interview with Anadolu that success depends on the world’s continued engagement.
The ex-diplomat was “very optimistic” about the progress made so far but asserted that it should not just lead to “a kind of permanent ceasefire,” emphasizing the need for sustained international backing to advance to the next stages.
“The process must continue. Whenever there is a standstill, there will be a relapse.”
On Monday, Hamas released 20 Israeli captives under the first phase of US President Donald Trump’s peace plan, while Israel released nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners. The ceasefire has held across much of Gaza, with Israeli troops withdrawing from densely populated areas.
Kobler emphasized that the harder part lies ahead. “We have to go more into this mediation and pressure on Israelis to accept (the rights of Palestinians) and the state of Palestine, which most countries do,” he said.
He also suggested that UN Security Council endorsement would give Trump’s plan greater political weight and legal authority.
“It’s very important to bring it to the UN Security Council, and since this is an American plan, the Americans will not veto. The Russians and the Chinese and the Europeans also, of course, not,” he said.
The plan’s first phase focused on a ceasefire and prisoner exchange. Later phases are meant to include demilitarization of Hamas, amnesty for those renouncing violence, and reconstruction under international supervision.
Kobler cautioned that the demilitarization phase is one of the most difficult and complex issues: “I think nobody has yet an idea how it goes on after the hostage release and the exchange of prisoners. The next step is the disarmament of Hamas. This is not yet negotiated, nobody has a plan, and this is a big weakness of the plan,” he said.
‘Important to avoid the mistakes of Oslo’
Kobler served as Germany’s top diplomat in the occupied West Bank from 1994 to 1997 and witnessed the unraveling of the Oslo peace process firsthand.
Drawing on that experience, he warned against repeating past errors: “Today, it’s important to avoid the mistakes of Oslo. It’s important to talk about the end state and to discuss the final status questions. Oslo left it open. The Trump plan also leaves it open,” he said.
He explained that while the plan tackles urgent humanitarian and security issues, it sidesteps the fundamental disputes over borders, settlements, and Palestinian sovereignty. “This has to be discussed in order to go ahead because the Palestinians want security, freedom, dignity. The Israelis want security and they want to keep the identity of a Jewish state,” Kobler said.
He stressed that only dialogue between the two sides could bring a lasting solution. “The international community can help, can assist, can develop ideas. However, the populations have to agree. We can be helpful … but it’s up to the populations who have to decide.”
Germany’s role in Gaza’s recovery
Kobler has been outspoken about Germany’s stance in the Middle East, criticizing Berlin for failing to use its influence on Israel to push for an end to the war. “I do hope that we play a more active role because we were considered in the EU as the stumbling block,” he said.
“We did not agree with sanctions against Israel and with tougher measures in order to exert pressure on Israel to stop this unproportional (disproportionate) war and mass killings in Gaza.”
Germany recently announced plans to co-host a reconstruction conference with Egypt and contribute to rebuilding Gaza’s devastated infrastructure. Kobler called it a welcome but insufficient step.
“Germany and Egypt alone are not enough because there will be $100 billion needed over the next 10 years … It will take five years to remove the rubble, to rebuild the buildings, and the most urgent thing is now to have hospitals and schools restituted, and to have clean water again,” he said.
Chancellor Friedrich Merz has pledged strong financial and technical support for Gaza’s recovery, but ruled out sending German troops to the planned international security mission.
Kobler said Germany’s reservations about committing troops were understandable given its historical responsibility toward Israel stemming from its Nazi past and the Holocaust.
“Imagine a scenario where there are German soldiers in Gaza, and there is some kind of reaction of the Israel Defense Forces. Then German soldiers would be forced to shoot on Israeli soldiers. That’s totally unimaginable for Germany,” he said.
“However, there are lots of other possibilities to contribute economically, but also with soft power – bringing about reconciliation, transitional justice, people-to-people programs between Israelis and Palestinians.”