France's population to peak at 69.8M in 2037 before steady decline, stats agency says

France's population is expected to reach a peak of 69.8 million people in 2037 before entering a period of gradual decline, according to new projections released on Monday by the country's National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE).

If current demographic trends continue, the population would fall to 65.9 million by 2070, compared with 69.1 million inhabitants in 2026, the statistics agency said.

According to INSEE, population growth over the next decade would be driven entirely by net migration, as France's natural balance, the difference between births and deaths, turned negative in 2025.

The agency said net migration would continue to offset the natural population deficit until 2037. Thereafter, migration would no longer compensate for the gap between births and deaths, causing the population to begin shrinking.

INSEE's projections are based on a scenario in which recent demographic trends continue, including lower fertility rates and positive migration flows.

The institute expects France's fertility rate to stabilize at 1.45 children per woman from 2028 onward, while annual net migration remains around 150,000 people.

Alongside the projected decline in population, France is expected to experience significant aging.

By 2070, the number of people under 45 is projected to decrease by 8.9 million, while the number of those aged 65 and over would rise by 5.8 million.

The increase would be driven mainly by those aged 80 and above, whose numbers are expected to grow by 4.6 million.

The number of centenarians could also quadruple by 2070, according to the agency.

INSEE said the share of older people in the population will continue to grow over the coming decades. By 2040, there would be 49 people aged 65 and over for every 100 people aged 20 to 64, compared with 40 per 100 in 2026.

Under the agency's baseline scenario, that old-age dependency ratio would reach 62 per 100 by 2070.

While population decline remains uncertain and will depend largely on future fertility and migration trends, INSEE said population aging is inevitable due to longer life expectancy and demographic changes already underway.

Depending on how fertility and migration evolve, France's population in 2070 could range between 61 million and 71 million people, the agency added.