- Persistent political fragmentation, corruption concerns have stalled stable governance
- New Progressive Bulgaria party, founded by former President Rumen Radev, projected to lead
Bulgaria will hold snap parliamentary elections on Sunday in the latest attempt to break a prolonged period of political instability that has gripped the country for nearly five years.
Since 2021, the Balkan country of 6.5 million has struggled with fragmented parliaments, failed coalition negotiations and deep political divisions, resulting in short-lived governments and repeated caretaker administrations appointed by the presidency.
Divisions over judicial reform, anti-corruption measures, energy policy and the country’s stance on Russia’s war in Ukraine have deepened political fragmentation.
Sunday’s vote will mark the eighth parliamentary election in five years, as voters once again elect members to the 240-seat National Assembly.
Recent polls suggest the newly formed Progressive Bulgaria party, led by former President Rumen Radev, could emerge as the largest force, though it is unlikely to secure an outright majority.
Radev, a former air force commander, has positioned himself as an anti-establishment figure focused on tackling corruption and curbing oligarchic influence.
However, his more cautious stance on military support for Ukraine and criticism of Bulgaria’s eurozone integration have raised concerns among some Western analysts, who view him as more sympathetic to Russian interests than his predecessors.
What led to the new snap elections?
The latest political crisis followed the October 2024 parliamentary election, which produced another fragmented legislature and low voter turnout of under 40%.
The center-right GERB party, led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, won the most seats but failed to secure a majority with 26% of the vote.
A coalition government was later formed with the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) and There Is Such a People (ITN), under Prime Minister Rosen Zhelyazkov.
However, the administration quickly came under pressure after proposing a 2026 budget that included tax hikes and higher social contributions, triggering mass protests.
Demonstrators also rallied against corruption, with Transparency International ranking Bulgaria among the EU countries with the highest perceived public-sector corruption in 2025, while Eurostat data showed it had the lowest GDP per capita in the bloc.
The government withdrew the budget, but the unrest persisted. Zhelyazkov resigned in December, citing the “voice of the people.”
After three failed attempts to form a new government, the president appointed a caretaker administration and called early elections, in line with constitutional procedures.
Who is running and what do recent polls show?
According to a Market Links opinion poll, co-financed by broadcaster bTV, five political blocs are expected to enter parliament.
Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria is projected to lead with around 38% of the vote, or roughly 109 seats.
Parties must secure at least 121 seats in the 240-member parliament to form a government.
Radev, who served as president from 2017 until January 2026, stepped down to form the new party and contest the election. He has campaigned on dismantling entrenched political and economic corruption networks.
“The oligarchy is deeply entrenched … It’s a pyramid [scheme] that systematically drains society while securing its impunity through control of institutions, parties, elections, media and business,” he said last month in Sofia, according to Politico. “Unless this model is dismantled, any form of governance would be doomed to failure.”
Some analysts warn that his rise could shift Bulgaria’s geopolitical orientation, particularly if he forms alliances with smaller parties that are skeptical of Western policies toward Russia.
Although pro-Russian rhetoric has not formed part of his campaign, as president, he was critical of Bulgaria’s recent support for Ukraine as well as the country’s adoption of the euro on Jan. 1.
Radev remains one of the few political figures with a positive approval rating, and polling suggests that a significant share of undecided voters may ultimately back Progressive Bulgaria.
The conservative GERB–UDF is expected to come second with around 20% of the vote, followed by the pro-Western reformist Continue the Change – Democratic Bulgaria (CC-DB) alliance with roughly 13%.
The Movement for Rights and Freedoms (MRF), with a support base of ethnic minority communities, is projected to win 7.5%.
Far-right Revival,which came third in the last round of voting with roughly 13%, is expected to see support drop to 5.6%.
Several smaller parties are polling close to the 4% threshold required to enter parliament, including Velichie, Siyanie, Morality, Unity and Honour (MECh), and BSP - United Left.
Election integrity concerns
Concerns over election integrity have also intensified ahead of the vote.
The October 2024 election was partially annulled by the Constitutional Court after evidence of vote manipulation emerged.
Authorities say they have introduced new safeguards, including a monitoring unit and a hotline for reporting violations.
In recent weeks, authorities have reported suspected vote-buying cases, with around 500 people detained and counterfeit money allegedly intended for purchasing votes siezed, according to local media.
The Sofia-based Anti-Corruption Fund says other common irregularities include ballot stuffing and the invalidation of legitimate votes.
Acting Interior Ministry Secretary General Georgi Kandev said authorities are closely tracking vote-buying networks.
“We will break both old and new cartels – vote buyers will be in the ministry's sights even after the elections,” he said.
Officials say more than 1,700 reports of election violations have been filed ahead of Sunday’s vote – a sharp increase compared with 418 in 2024, reflecting both heightened scrutiny and growing public concern.
Voting is set to take place Sunday between 7 am and 8 pm local time (0400-1700GMT) with the possibility of a one-hour extension.
Results are expected late Sunday and into Monday.
