Bulgarians head to the polls Sunday for their eighth parliamentary elections in five years, a stark reflection of the deep political instability that has gripped the Balkan nation since 2021.
Amid public frustration, corruption scandals and repeated government collapses, the vote is widely seen as a critical test of whether the country can finally restore stable governance or sink further into paralysis.
The election follows the collapse of a fragile coalition government in December, triggered by mass protests, many led by younger voters, and mounting distrust in political institutions.
The prolonged crisis has left Bulgaria, the European Union's poorest member state, struggling with governance, economic pressures and growing geopolitical tensions.
At the center of the election stands former President Rumen Radev, whose newly formed political movement, Progressive Bulgaria, has surged to the top of opinion polls.
The roots of Bulgaria's political deadlock lie in a fragmented landscape that emerged after the end of the long-time rule by the GERB party in 2021.
No party has since been able to command more than one-third of the electorate, forcing uneasy coalitions that have repeatedly collapsed because of ideological divisions and personal rivalries.
Parliament has often been split among up to nine parties, many newly formed and lacking governing experience.
Attempts to form governments have repeatedly collapsed due to internal divisions. A notable example was the four-party coalition led by Kiril Petkov, which fell apart because of disagreements on policy toward North Macedonia.
Analysts say the fragmentation, combined with low voter turnout, has made it easier for smaller factions to enter parliament, complicating coalition-building efforts.
"Forming a government required an agreement among more than one party, which naturally complicated the process," Jan Nowinowski, a fellow at the Centre for Eastern Studies, told Anadolu. "Even when a compromise coalition was formed, it was full of tensions and internal conflicts, which led to its collapse."
Compounding the problem is what experts describe as a lack of "coalition culture" in Bulgarian politics.
Historically, governments have been dominated by a single strong party, leaving little experience with power-sharing arrangements based on compromise and negotiation.
A major new factor is the political project of Rumen Radev, who recently resigned as president to launch his party, Progressive Bulgaria.
According to the polls, the party could secure 30% of the vote, potentially allowing it to form a government with one coalition partner, a scenario that could improve stability.
His campaign centers on dismantling what he describes as a corrupt system linking political elites, business interests and the judiciary.
"Radev's political project also attracts voters who have previously voted for nationalist and sovereigntist forces (Vazrazhdane, MECh, Velichie, and to some extent the post-communist BSP as well)," said Nowinowski.
"It (Radev's party) tries to speak to all possible audiences. It speaks to poor people, to vulnerable people, to marginalized people, by saying that inequalities in Bulgaria should be restricted, that state support should be given to all those in need," Boris Petrov Popivanov, associate professor of political systems and ideologies at St. Kliment Ohridski University of Sofia, told Anadolu.
The wide appeal has weakened several smaller parties, potentially reducing parliamentary fragmentation after the vote.
Despite his strong polling, Radev faces the same structural challenge as his predecessors -- forming a viable coalition.
One potential partner is the pro-European alliance We Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria, with whom he shares an anti-corruption agenda. But sharp differences on foreign policy, particularly regarding support for Ukraine and relations with Russia, could hinder cooperation.
Alternatively, a coalition with nationalist or sovereigntist parties might align more closely with Radev's cautious stance on foreign policy. But such an alliance could damage Bulgaria's standing within the EU and still fall short of a parliamentary majority.
A grand coalition with GERB, led by former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov, is considered unlikely, given Radev's main message, which he associates GERB with systemic corruption.
"If Radev’s party wins more than 100 ... it is possible to have a minority government or something of the game, which could be stable. But if it is under 100, it again means a political deadlock," said Popivanov.
Popivanov believes Radev has become the central figure in Bulgarian politics, making it nearly impossible to form a government without his participation.
Beyond the numbers, Bulgaria’s political crisis is also fueled by deep societal polarization, according to Popivanov.
"Different political camps in the society, they not just dislike but they hate each other. The levels of hate speech is really, really impressive in this way. So, in such a situation, a stable government in Bulgaria is possible only under these conditions," said Popivanov.
At the same time, many voters feel disconnected from political elites, accusing parties of focusing on international issues while neglecting everyday concerns such as rising living costs and economic insecurity, he noted.
The disconnect has contributed to the establishment of new political movements, none of which have yet succeeded in building broad support because they are only addressing their supporters and not the nation as a whole, he said.
Popivanov argued that three new political forces have tried but failed to break Bulgaria's political deadlock due to limited appeal.
While Radev's emergence offers a potential chance out of the deadlock, analysts caution that expectations should be tempered.
Bulgaria has seen similar attempts before, only for them to falter once confronted with the realities of coalition politics.
If coalition talks fail after the election, the country could face another caretaker government and new elections, extending a cycle that has already defined Bulgarian politics for half a decade.
"Following Rumen Radev's resignation as president and the formation of his party, there is a chance for stability," said Nowinowski. "Bulgarian politics, however, is unpredictable, and the crisis could continue if future negotiations fail."
As Bulgarians cast their votes, the stakes are high not only for the country's domestic governance but also for its role within Europe, at a time of geopolitical uncertainty.
