China's ranking as the world's second largest oil consumer is set to change around 2035 to the world's biggest, OPEC's Secretary General Mohammad Sanusi Barkindo said on Tuesday.
In a statement after Barkindo's visit to Beijing, he said that OPEC's visit to China reflected the interdependence of OPEC and China which is evident in the massive increase in trade volumes in 2016 compared to 2000.
Total imports from OPEC member countries amounting to $93 billion in 2016, he said. “This is a staggering $85 billion increase from 2000. In the other direction, OPEC’s total imports from China increased from just under $6 billion in 2000 to over $106 billion in 2016,” he explained.
In terms of crude oil, he said that China’s total imports have risen from around 1.4 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2000 to more than 8.3 mb/d projected for 2017, 60 percent of which came from OPEC member countries.
- China’s energy future
Referencing the OPEC World Oil Outlook report in November that contains 2040 estimations, Barkindo said China accounted for 18 percent of global GDP in 2016.
'By 2040, this is expected to increase by five percentage points to 23 percent,' he said.
Global energy demand growth is also expected to increase by approximately 96 million barrels of oil equivalent per day between 2016 and 2040, he said, and added that roughly 23 percent of this increase will come from China.
A similar trend can be observed in oil demand, which is expected to grow by 16 mb/d, from 94.4 mb/d in 2016 to 111.1 in 2040 and China will account for 38 percent of this growth, according to Barkindo.
China will also be a leader in the expansion of refining capacity, in both the medium and long term.
He further explained that at the global level, 7.6 mb/d of new distillation capacity is expected between 2017 and 2022, out of which 2.1 mb/d, or approximately 28 percent, of this will be located in China.
'Long-term distillation additions follow a similar trend, reaching close to 20 mb/d by 2040 worldwide. China will account for 4.2 mb/d of this, roughly 22 percent of the global figure,' he asserted.
Greater refinery capacity in the region will necessitate greater quantities of crude.
Significantly for OPEC, this will be reflected in trade flows until 2040, as Chinese imports expand and the volume of OPEC exports becomes higher.
'According to OPEC estimates, crude exports from OPEC member countries to China will increase by close to 4 mb/d between 2016 and 2040, rising from 4.4 mb/d in 2016 to more than 8 mb/d in 2040, representing around 20 percent of the world’s total crude oil trade between major regions by 2040,' he said.
By Gulsen Cagatay
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr