-May’s deal vs. no deal: Parliament's dilemma
British Prime Minister Theresa May will be forced to present Parliament with a new Brexit deal if her current deal is voted down after MPs voted last Wednesday in favor of a Tory rebel amendment. The amendment sets forth a three-day deadline for May to negotiate a new deal in the anticipated likelihood that she loses the critical vote on Tuesday while reducing the threat of the U.K. crashing out of the EU without a deal.
Downing Street made clear that if May loses Tuesday’s vote, the prime minister would return to Parliament and present an alternative plan on the next course to take.
Last Tuesday, Jan. 8, a powerful cross-party coalition of MPs voted in favor of an amendment to limit the government’s preparations for a no-deal Brexit.
If May’s Brexit deal is rejected by the U.K. parliament, the situation could lead to a point where Brexit would not occur, Britain’s foreign secretary Jeremy Hunt said on Friday.
“If this deal is rejected, ultimately what we may end up with is not a different type of Brexit, but Brexit paralysis. And Brexit paralysis ultimately could lead to no Brexit,” Hunt said, speaking to BBC Radio 4.
The U.K. economy is also set to continue its downturn. Growth in the U.K. economy slowed in the three months to November. The economy grew by 0.3 percent during the last six months, and less than the 0.4 percent in the three months to October, according to data of the Office for National Statistics. The ONS said manufacturers suffered their longest period of monthly falls in output since the financial crisis, having been hit by weaker overseas demand.
"Growth in the U.K. economy continued to slow in the three months to November after performing more strongly through the middle of the year,” Rob Kent-Smith, head of national accounts at the ONS, said.
If Parliament rejects May’s deal, there will be a lot more uncertainty ahead of the U.K.’s departure from the union. The European Union has on many occasions declared that the U.K. will not be given any concessions, claiming the deal is the best that the EU decision makers can reach.
However, should a no vote emerge for May’s deal, other options remain on the table. May could return to Brussels and ask for concessions, or a cross-party coalition could vote her down by holding a no-confidence vote. The other alternative is that May would call for a general election and step down. However, it looks like this is the last option for the Conservatives as the polls suggest that Labour could win the next election. At the same time, the remainers are still pushing for a second referendum – a choice that currently looks unlikely. Undoubtedly, the vote on May’s deal on Tuesday will be decisive for the future of the country, for May’s political career and the Conservatives.