- Public view change on Brexit now reflects on politics
Since 52 percent of U.K. won the right to leave the EU with a small margin in the June 2016 referendum, subsequent developments have had a significant impact on sterling, economic growth, business investments, inflation and household income, and debts and savings, all of which are now reflected on the political arena.
More than 100 constituencies that voted to leave the EU in 2016 have now switched their support to remain in the bloc, according to a new analysis published last weekend. The investigation and its subsequent findings, undertaken by the pro-EU movement ‘Best for Britain’ and the anti-racist ‘Hope Not Hate’ group, and compiled by analytics company and the Guardian’s Observer, has concluded that most seats in the U.K. now hold a majority of voters who want to remain in the EU.
The analysis is one of the most extensive and comprehensive studies carried out on Brexit since the referendum two years ago. Its findings could have a significant and influential impact on the Brexit debate in Parliament later this year. Of the 632 constituencies in England, Scotland Wales that were examined as part of the study, 112 constituencies that were found to vote to leave the EU now want to remain in the EU. As such, the analysis shows that there are now 341 seats with a majority that wants to remain in the EU, compared to the 229 seats in the referendum two years ago.
Overall, according to the model, 53 percent of the population would vote to remain in the EU while 47 percent would vote to leave.
Among the many constituencies that now want to remain in the EU is Uxbridge with 51.4 percent, a constituency that is represented by former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson, and Surrey Heath at 50.2 percent, represented by Environment Secretary Michael Gove. The two Tory MPs were the face of the Leave campaign and are proponents of a “hard Brexit.”
“This groundbreaking research shows that Brexit is still not inevitable. People across the U.K. have witnessed the last two years of uncertainty with dismay and are thinking differently – 112 constituencies have switched to majorities that back staying in our current bespoke deal with the EU,” Eloise Todd, the chief executive of Best for Britain, told the Observer.
Half of the British population would like to see a referendum on the deal the government suggests, no deal, or staying in the European Union, according to a data poll published on July 30.
The Sky Data snap poll showed 50 percent of Brits want to have a say on the final Brexit path of the country as 40 percent would reject a second referendum.
Asked to choose between these options, not leaving the EU would be the preferred option for 48 percent, with 27 percent preferring to leave the EU with no deal, and 13 percent choosing the government deal. Eight percent said they would not vote while 3 percent said they do not know.
The same poll signaled that 78 percent of the British public thinks the government is doing a bad job in Brexit negotiations with the bloc, up 23 points from last March. Only 10 percent said the government is doing a good job. The poll by Sky Data was held with the participation of 1,466 people from July 20-23. A majority, 52 percent -- thinks that Brexit will be bad for the economy, a rise of four points.
One-third of the British public thinks Brexit will be good for the economy, 9 percent say it will have no impact, and 40 percent think Brexit will be good for the country, according to the same poll.
The U.K. is set to leave the EU on March 29, 2019, and therefore there is not much time to finish all the preparations, resolve disputes or settle a new trade deal in order to have a smooth divorce. However, a second referendum or early election or further delays cannot be ruled out. An implementation period is expected to follow this official leave date and conclude at the end of 2020, during which the U.K. will abide by EU law without having a say on new legislation in return for the continued customs union and access to the single market.