Frankfurt briefing, Nov. 13

-Economic activity loses momentum in Eurozone

Data from the economic research institute IHS Markit Economics shows that the Eurozone’s final composite Purchasing Managers’ Index, which was 56.7 in September, fell to 56 points in October, a point more than the flash estimate of 55.9. 

Similarly, the services PMI slid to 55.0 in October, one point more than the flash estimate of 54.9 compared to 55.8 in September. 

“The October headline PMI reading matched the average seen in the third quarter and put the region on course for another 0.6-0.7 percent expansion in the closing quarter of 2017,” Chris Williamson, the chief business economist at IHS Markit, said.

Based on the survey conducted by companies, PMI data is regarded as an important indicator of the status and growth of the euro area’s economy. Above 50 points is seen as economic expansion.

Furthermore, the Frankfurt-based Sentix, which conducts surveys for the markets, anticipates that the Eurozone economy will improve again in November as both the economy and expectations are set to rise. The Sentix Investor Confidence Index for the Eurozone rose to 34 points this month, the highest level since July 2007. The Expectations Index, which measures investors' expectations for the next six months, rose to 22.8 points from 18.8 points. This was the highest level since September 2007.

The index was forecast to be even better in Germany as the overall index was projected to rise to an all-time high.

-Germany's adjusted exports and imports decline

Based on provisional data, the Federal Statistical Office (Destatis) reported that German exports increased by 4.6 percent and imports by 5.5 percent in September 2017 year-on-year. After calendar and seasonal adjustments, exports fell by 0.4 percent and imports by 1.0 percent compared with August 2017. 

The foreign trade balance showed a surplus of €24.1 billion in September 2017 compared to €23.7 billion for September 2016. In calendar and seasonally adjusted terms, the foreign trade balance recorded a surplus of €21.8 billion in September 2017.

-The week ahead

This week, European Central Bank (ECB) officials are due to speak in Frankfurt. Markets will focus on data including inflation, euro area and international trade.