Frankfurt briefing, May 21

 
-Poor data week for Euro area

Last week, overall growth, annual inflation foreign trade data in the Euro area gave negative signals for the single currency economy.

Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 0.4 percent in both the euro area and the European Union during the first quarter of 2018, compared with the previous quarter, according to a flash estimate published by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. 

In the fourth quarter of 2017, GDP had grown by 0.7 percent in the euro area and by 0.6 percent in the EU.

Compared with the same quarter of the previous year, seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 2.5 percent in the Euro area and by 2.4 percent in the EU in the first quarter of 2018, with a 2.8 and 2.7 percent rise, respectively from the previous quarter.

The Euro area’s annual inflation rate was 1.2 percent in April 2018, down from 1.3 percent in March and also down from the rate a year earlier when it was 1.9 percent. 

European Union annual inflation was 1.4 percent in April 2018, down from 1.5 percent in March. The figure also reflected a decline from 2.0 percent a year earlier. 

Annual inflation has moved away from the level targeted by the European Central Bank (ECB), which is responsible for managing monetary policy in the Eurozone.

Furthermore, foreign trade also recorded a slowdown. The first estimate for Euro area exports of goods to the rest of the world in March 2018 was €199.9 billion, a decrease of 2.9 percent compared with March 2017 when they peaked at €205.9 billion. 

Imports from the rest of the world stood at €173.0 billion in March 2018, a fall of 2.5 percent from €177.4 billion in March 2017. 

As a result, the Euro area recorded a €26.9 billion surplus in trade in goods with the rest of the world in March 2018, compared with €28.5 billion in March 2017. 

Intra-Euro area trade fell to €170.5 billion in March 2018, down by 0.6 percent compared with March 2017.

-The week ahead

This week, no significant data for the Euro area will be released. Markets will follow developments in the global economy.