Over 50% of nations set to exceed fossil fuel capacity with renewables, report finds

- China and Brazil lead in renewable energy deployment, with largest pipeline of renewable energy capacity

More than half of the world's countries have renewable energy projects in development that exceed their existing fossil fuel power capacity, according to a new research, underscoring the momentum of the low-carbon transition despite policy setbacks elsewhere.

The findings are from the State of the Sovereign Transition 2025 report by the TPI Global Climate Transition Centre at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

The analysis assesses 85 high-, middle-, and low-income countries under the Assessing Sovereign Climate-related Opportunities and Risks (ASCOR) framework, up from 70 last year.

The expanded coverage now includes nations that account for about 90% of global greenhouse gas emissions and GDP, as well as all four major government bond indices. Countries were evaluated across three pillars: long-term climate ambition, policy implementation, and the use of finance to support climate goals.

While many countries have advanced their climate policies, policy reversals in the US have pulled down the global average after the country stepped back from several climate actions over the past year. The report said emissions have continued to rise both globally and within the ASCOR group despite improvements in transparency and financial disclosure.

"The results highlight the need to link long-term ambition with concrete action that is regularly monitored and disclosed," the report said. Most countries have begun setting targets, adopting policies, and planning climate finance, but many still fall short on transparency and credibility.

Low- and middle-income countries showed the strongest progress in climate policy and finance compared with richer peers, driven by new legislation, carbon pricing, and clearer climate cost reporting.

China and Brazil lead in renewable energy deployment, with the largest pipeline of renewable energy capacity, the report found. Still, 97% of countries are not aligned with the cost-effective 1.5°C benchmark by 2035, with only Nigeria and the United Kingdom setting 2035 targets that meet that standard.

Regionally, the European Union and Latin America continue to lead on climate progress, while the Middle East and North Africa lag behind due to reliance on fossil fuel revenues and limited policy development.

Commenting on the report, Setenay Hizliok, sovereign project lead, TPI Centre, said: "As climate action faces political and economic challenges, maintaining a strong policy signal for investors through national transition plans is more important than ever."

"Despite the withdrawal of climate targets and policies in the US, we observe new policies and disclosures, especially in emerging markets," Hizliok added.

By Handan Kazanci

Anadolu Agency

energy@aa.com.tr