US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised up its average oil price projections for this year and next, taking into account recent developments in global oil markets.
In its Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) released late Wednesday, the EIA raised its 2025 and 2026 average Brent crude price forecast to $68.76 per barrel, up from $68.64, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) was revised to $65.15 per barrel from $65.
For 2026, the EIA projects Brent crude to average $54.92 per barrel and WTI to average $51.26 per barrel. In its previous outlook, the agency had estimated prices at $52.16 and $48.50 per barrel, respectively.
The upward revision was driven by China's large-scale purchases to boost its strategic oil reserves and the potential impact of new sanctions on Russia, which could constrain output.
EIA estimates that China added about 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) to its strategic reserves between January and September 2025. The agency expects China to continue stockpiling in 2026, though at a slower pace than this year.
Sanctions on Russia are projected to reduce the country's crude oil production by around 100,000 bpd in the first quarter of 2026.
EIA notes that stronger-than-expected effects of the sanctions could lead to a sharper production decline, pushing prices higher.
- US crude production forecasted to rise
US crude oil output is forecast to average 13.59 million bpd in 2025, up from the 13.53 million barrels projected in the previous report.
For 2026, production is expected to average 13.58 million bpd, compared to the earlier estimate of 13.51 million barrels.
Meanwhile, global oil supply is forecast to average 105.98 million bpd in 2025, while global demand is expected to reach 104.14 million bpd.
Global supply is projected to rise to 107.37 million bpd, with demand reaching around 105.20 million barrels in 2026.
By Humeyra Ayaz
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr