The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) has revised down its 2025 oil price forecast, lowering its projection by about $1.7 from previous report to $67.22 per barrel.
Brent crude, which traded at $71 per barrel last month, is expected to post sharp declines in the coming months, averaging $58 in the 4th quarter of 2025 and around $50 in early 2026, according to the EIA's August 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook.
The downward revision is driven by expectations of a significant build in global oil inventories following the OPEC+ decision to accelerate production increases.
Global stock builds are projected to exceed 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in the last quarter of 2025 and the 1st quarter of 2026, around 800,000 bpd higher than the previous report's estimate.
The report also noted that low oil prices at the start of 2026 are expected to prompt OPEC+ and some non-OPEC producers to implement supply cuts, which would limit inventory builds later in the year.
Brent crude prices are forecast to average $51 per barrel in 2026, below last month's estimate of $58. For 2025, Brent crude is now projected to average $67.22 per barrel, down from $68.89 in the previous outlook.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is forecast to average $63.58 per barrel in 2025, compared with last month's projection of $65.22. Last year, Brent averaged $80.56 per barrel, while WTI stood at $76.60.
– US crude oil production
The EIA expects US crude oil output to hit a record 13.6 million bpd in December, supported by gains in productivity per rig.
However, with falling oil prices, the slowdown in drilling and well completion activity that has persisted through much of the year is expected to accelerate.
As a result, US crude production is projected to average about 13.41 million bpd in 2025 and 13.28 million bpd in 2026, compared to 13.21 million bpd last year.
Globally, oil supply is forecast to reach 105.36 million bpd this year and 106.35 million bpd in 2026, while demand is expected to average 103.72 million bpd in 2025 and 104.91 million bpd next year.
By Humeyra Ayaz
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr