Global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade could remain flat this year as disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz curbs Middle East supply, Shell said on Tuesday.
In its LNG Outlook 2026, the energy major said global LNG demand is expected to rise to nearly 700 million metric tons a year by 2050, around 65% above 2025 levels, as countries continue to prioritize flexible and reliable energy security offered by gas and LNG.
A total of 422 million tons of LNG was traded in 2025, and Shell said this had been expected to increase significantly in 2026.
However, severe disruption to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has shut in around one-fifth of the world’s monthly LNG supply since the conflict began, pushing up spot-market prices and weighing on some Asian importers.
“The conflict created a system-wide shock with disruption cascading across all segments of the economy, but the LNG industry has proved resilient and able to adapt to changing market conditions,” said Cederic Cremers, president of Integrated Gas at Shell.
Shell said the ramp-up of new liquefaction facilities in North America, improved performance at existing plants and slower Asian LNG imports have partly offset reduced supply from the Middle East.
As a result, total LNG trade in 2026 could be similar to last year if shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal this summer, before returning to growth in 2027, it said.
The Strait of Hormuz is a key global energy route linking the Persian Gulf with international markets. Disruption to the waterway can affect shipments from major LNG exporters in the region, including Qatar.
Shell said around 180 million tons of annual new LNG supply is forecast to enter the market by 2030, improving gas availability and affordability while opening demand in new markets.
However, it warned that countries’ ability to benefit from new supply will depend on import infrastructure, including regasification capacity and pipeline connectivity, particularly in South and Southeast Asia.
Those regions are expected to account for around 40% of global LNG imports by 2050.
Shell said LNG would also remain vital for Europe’s energy security as domestic gas production declines and renewable power generation expands.
Asian spot LNG prices rose above $20 per million British thermal units at the peak of the Middle East crisis, but remained well below 2022 levels following Russia’s war on Ukraine, reflecting a more resilient LNG market, the energy giant added.
By Mucahithan Avcioglu
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr
