Russia's temporary suspension of gasoline exports through Aug. 31 is aimed at stabilizing the domestic fuel market amid soaring demand, refinery disruptions, and rising prices, according to an energy expert.
“The export ban highlights a tightening domestic fuel market, reduced refining throughput, and increased central government intervention to ensure fuel availability and contain inflation,” Tatiana Mitrova, a research fellow at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, told Anadolu.
The Russian government announced a temporary ban on gasoline exports on July 28 to stabilize the domestic fuel market. Moscow has previously imposed similar restrictions to maintain market stability.
"Maintenance backlogs and sanctions-related delays in spare parts are intensifying capacity constraints," Mitrova said.
Mitrova noted that high domestic interest rates have discouraged fuel retailers and distributors from pre-stocking inventories, weakening the market's ability to respond during peak demand.
She added that the government's "highly manual, reactive approach to market regulation" has further undermined fuel supply resilience.
Russia produces more than 40 to 44 million metric tons of gasoline annually. While not a dominant global exporter, it accounts for about 2% of seaborne refined fuel trade, making it a non-negligible supplier, according to Mitrova.
She identified the main drivers of the export ban as "urgent domestic supply shortages, high seasonal demand, refinery disruptions, soaring prices, and tightening regulation."
Mitrova noted that stockpiles were especially low during peak summer demand, driven by agricultural activity and increased road travel, partly due to flight delays.
"Refining capacity is limited. Ongoing maintenance and disruptions caused by drone strikes have exacerbated the shortage," she added.
Wholesale gasoline prices have surged on the St. Petersburg Commodity Exchange, with AI‑95 up nearly 30% year-to-date to around 76,000 rubles per ton, and AI‑92 up nearly 29%.
Mitrova said the spike has sparked concern over "socially sensitive" price increases.
The new restrictions also expand beyond earlier measures that only applied to traders and depots. "The new ban extends to fuel producers themselves, effectively closing the export window entirely through August 31," she said.
- Regional effects of Russia's gasoline export ban
Mitrova noted that in early 2025, Russian gasoline exports rose by 25-50%, reaching 2.4 to 2.5 million tons in the first half of the year, with Egypt and Türkiye among the top importers.
"Given Russia's relatively small share of global seaborne gasoline trade, the export ban is unlikely to significantly impact global prices," she said.
However, she explained, in countries directly dependent on Russian supplies such as Egypt and Türkiye, "local gasoline prices may rise if alternative deliveries are costlier or face logistical delays."
Mitrova noted that some countries, such as members of the Eurasian Economic Union, including Kyrgyzstan, may be exempt due to duty-free intergovernmental fuel agreements. But she cautioned that regional buyers in Africa and Asia that access discounted Russian fuel through intermediaries, could face tighter supply as export volumes decline.
"Broader geopolitical factors could also shift the price dynamics," she added, pointing to US President Donald Trump's recent threat to impose secondary sanctions on China and India for purchasing Russian oil.
"(This) could dramatically alter the global oil market outlook, with knock-on effects for petroleum product prices," she said.
On Wednesday, Trump vowed to impose "a lot more" secondary sanctions on nations that purchase Russian oil after slapping the penalties on India hours earlier.
"You're going to see a lot more. You're going to see so much secondary sanctions," Trump told reporters at the White House.
Earlier, the US president signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on India in response to its continued purchase of Russian oil. The tariffs will be effective in 21 days.
By Handan Kazanci
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr