Global oil markets remain fragile despite the start of shipments from strategic reserves aimed at offsetting the effects of the US-Israel war on Iran, as uncertainty over supply and demand balances continues to weigh on sentiment.
On March 11, members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) agreed to release a total of 400 million barrels of oil from emergency stockpiles, following a supply shock triggered by escalating tensions in the Middle East.
The decision followed Iran's de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz after the US and Israel began attacks on Iran on Feb. 28, disrupting a key global transit route and driving prices sharply higher.
IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said on March 16 that additional barrels from emergency reserves were reaching markets, particularly in Asia.
Countries in the Asia-Pacific region have committed to releasing well over 100 million barrels, while European countries are contributing a similar volume. Nations in the Americas are releasing more than 170 million barrels, with additional supply of over 20 million barrels expected from increased production.
However, analysts say the initial shipments have yet to ease market concerns, as the physical flow of oil remains gradual.
Johannes Rauball, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, told Anadolu that overall things are moving rather slowly, and most countries have yet to release barrels from their strategic petroleum reserves (SPR).
He noted that Japan released some crude from its commercial/private storage last week, but releases from its SPR have not yet been recorded. "Most of Japan's SPR release will occur in April. If disruptions persist into May, we are likely to see additional releases from Japan," he said.
In the US, initial crude shipments began on Friday, the same day the US Department of Energy awarded contracts to eight companies for 45.2 million barrels of sweet and sour crude from SPR sites in Texas and Louisiana.
Deliveries are scheduled from April 1 to May 31, with the option to ship early, according to Rauball.
"Beijing has not yet announced any crude oil releases, but the probability of such a move is rising as prices are expected to stay elevated. Crude prices continue to show upward pressure, and an extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz could prompt China to draw on its substantial inventories, which are currently at record levels of 1,200 million barrels. Roughly one-third of these reserves consist of crude held in the country’s SPRs," he said.
- Vulnerabilities vary across regions
Rauball said countries heavily reliant on crude flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain the most exposed to supply disruptions.
The Philippines, Vietnam and Japan import around 80% of their crude via this route, among the highest levels globally. While Japan's large reserves provide a buffer, countries such as the Philippines and Vietnam have more limited stockpiles, making them more vulnerable.
Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan face similar risks, he added.
Although India has been increasing imports from Russia, where crude availability remains stable, the country is highly import-dependent and faces additional challenges from rising global crude prices.
- Net exporters less vulnerable to supply shock
Net oil exporters such as Canada, the US and Brazil are better positioned to withstand supply shocks, Rauball said, citing strong domestic production and lower reliance on imports.
"Despite high domestic consumption in the US, crude availability remains strong due to factors such as the recent redirection of Venezuelan crude flows, record-high Canadian and US crude production, and strategic petroleum reserve releases," he said.
Similarly, Brazil benefits from substantial domestic production and lower import dependency, helping these countries withstand global supply disruptions and limiting the impact of rising crude and product prices, according to Rauball.
The upcoming global coordinated SPR releases of crude and products:
| Region | Government Stock | Industry Stock | Other | Crude | Refined Products |
| Americas | 172.2 | 23.6 | 100% | ||
| Asia/Oceania | 66.8 | 41.8 | 60% | 40% | |
| Europe | 32.7 | 74.8 | 32% | 68% | |
| Total | 271.7 | 116.6 | 23.6 | 72% | 28% |
By Ebru Sengul Cevrioglu
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr