The combined earnings of the world's 12 largest oil companies fell by roughly $26 billion in the January-September period compared with the same period last year, sliding to an average of $160 billion.
US producers ExxonMobil, Chevron, ConocoPhillips, Halliburton, Schlumberger and Baker Hughes, Europe-based Shell, bp, TotalEnergies, Eni and Equinor, and Saudi Aramco—the world's largest state-run oil company—reported a collective profit of around $160 billion in the first nine months of 2025, down from about $186 billion a year earlier.
The total marks a 14% year-on-year decline.
Saudi Aramco's profit dropped 6.5% to $78.8 billion, while ExxonMobil posted a 14.5% decrease to $22.3 billion.
Shell reported a 23.5% decline to $15.3 billion, TotalEnergies a 15.2% fall to $11.7 billion, Chevron a 34% slump to $9.5 billion, and bp a 23.4% drop to $5.9 billion.
Equinor's earnings fell 40.5% to $4.4 billion, Eni's slipped 13.7% to $4.4 billion, and Schlumberger's declined 26.5% to $2.5 billion.
ConocoPhillips posted a 4.8% drop to $2 billion, while Baker Hughes reported a 5.5% decline to $1.7 billion. Halliburton registered a 25% decrease to $1.5 billion.
- Lower crude prices weigh on earnings
Weak demand, US tariff disputes and ongoing geopolitical risks have pushed oil prices downward throughout the year, Osama Rizvi, analyst at US-based Primary Vision told Anadolu.
He said the contraction in profits is "mainly the result of the slide in crude prices."
Rizvi recalled that the US Energy Information Administration's November 2025 Short-Term Energy Outlook projects oil prices next year to fall below the 2025 average. This suggests that pressure on oil-company profitability will persist into 2026, he said.
Short-lived price spikes may occur amid geopolitical tensions, but a sustained recovery to higher ranges appears unlikely, he added.
- Market watching signals from Japan
Rizvi highlighted that the global market faces elevated supply and potential surplus risks, with indicators showing conflicting signals on the scale of the glut. The reality, he noted, is "somewhere in the middle."
He said non-OPEC production data point to sustained high output levels, in line with the EIA's projection that US crude production will reach 13.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2026. Guyana's production, meanwhile, is expected to approach 900,000 bpd as ExxonMobil brings new wells online.
On the demand side, concerns over the trajectory of the US economy, China's short-term slowdown and structural issues in the Eurozone are capping consumption.
Rizvi stressed that investors should "closely track signals from Japan," as indicators from the Japanese economy may offer a clearer view of global momentum.
- Supply surplus likely to persist through 2026
Julien Mathonniere, oil economist at Energy Intelligence Group, said consolidation could accelerate if crude prices continue falling and stay low, making more vulnerable producers easier acquisition targets.
Mathonniere noted that the market has entered a surplus phase, adding that this oversupply is expected to persist until 2026.
Under such conditions, he said, prices will need to adjust to help rebalance the market—likely through a reduction in supply from non-OPEC producers. This implies some companies could face additional price-driven challenges heading into 2026, he said.
Despite weaker pricing, the five supermajors—ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, TotalEnergies and bp—delivered results broadly in line with or above analyst expectations, supported by stronger-than-anticipated refining margins.
Even so, Mathonniere said lower operational cash flows, rising leverage and subdued crude prices "remain a significant risk for smaller producers."
Mathonniere added that as inventories build, prices will come under further downward pressure. He expects Brent to trade for a substantial stretch in the $50-$60 range throughout 2026.
For the remainder of this year, the forecast places average Brent at $68, while next year’s average is expected to ease to around $65.
By Duygu Alhan
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr