Oil heading for weekly gain amid geopolitical tensions and cautious market sentiment

- Market participants remain cautious, balancing supply risks against concerns over demand and overall market oversupply

Oil prices are set for weekly gains as escalating geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East and renewed sanctions risks outweighed demand pressure from rising US inventories and oversupply concerns.

The international benchmark Brent crude traded at $67.17 per barrel at 2.34 p.m. local time (1134 GMT) on Friday, up around 2.6% from last week's close of $65.45.

Similarly, the American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at $62.98 per barrel, up roughly 2.1% from $61.7 last Friday.

Prices rose early in the week as Russia's largest airstrike on Kyiv since the war began heightened concerns of tighter supply and potential sanctions.

US President Donald Trump said he was prepared to implement a new phase of sanctions, while European Council President Antonio Costa announced that the EU is accelerating work on new measures.

The eight members of the OPEC+ group agreed on Sunday to a smaller-than-expected output hike of 137,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October, down from September's 547,000 bpd increase.

Analysts noted that some members are already producing above quotas, so the impact may be limited, but the restrained output helped support prices.

Geopolitical risks intensified as Israeli airstrikes targeting senior Hamas leaders in Doha added to market uncertainty.

Midweek, US crude inventories rose, weighing on prices. The American Petroleum Institute reported a build of 1.25 million barrels, and the US Energy Information Administration noted a 3.9 million-barrel increase in commercial stocks.

Gasoline inventories also rose by 1.5 million barrels.

Expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts also provided support throughout the week.

Markets are pricing in three cuts by year-end, though rising US inflation and tariff concerns could delay reductions, limiting near-term demand.

Adding to downside pressure, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that global oil supply is set to rise faster than expected this year due to planned increases by OPEC+ and other producers, raising the risk of oversupply despite steady demand growth.

The IEA projects global output to reach 105.8 million bpd in 2025 and 107.9 million in 2026, while demand is expected to climb steadily, reaching around 103.87 million bpd in 2025 and 104.57 million bpd in 2026, supported by lower prices and strong deliveries in advanced economies.

By Firdevs Yuksel

Anadolu Agency

energy@aa.com.tr