The International Energy Agency (IEA) has revised down its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 by around 83,000 barrels per day (bpd), citing seasonal weakness and a modest, economy-driven outlook.
Global oil demand is now expected to rise by about 849,000 bpd this year compared with 2025, reaching 104.87 million bpd, the agency said in its February Oil Market Report released on Thursday.
In its previous report, the IEA had projected demand growth of around 932,000 bpd, with total consumption reaching 104.98 million bpd.
According to the agency, the downgrade reflects seasonal weakness in consumption, as global oil demand fell by around 2.7 million bpd month on month in January, traditionally the annual low point.
While demand typically rebounds in February, the IEA noted that beyond seasonal effects, oil demand growth in 2026 is expected to follow a modest trend largely dictated by economic conditions rather than weather-related factors.
"As in 2025, non‑OECD economies will account for the entire increase, with China taking the lead on a country level," the IEA said.
Non-OECD oil demand is forecast to reach 59.08 million bpd in 2026, rising by 857,000 bpd, while OECD demand is expected to total 45.79 million bpd, edging down by 8,000 bpd.
- Oil supply down over 1 million barrels per day in January
Meanwhile, global oil supply fell by 1.22 million bpd in January to 106.58 million bpd.
"Global oil supply plummeted in January as severe winter weather disrupted North American operations, with output down by 1.2 million bpd month-on-month to 106.6 million bpd, but still 4.6 million bpd higher than a year ago," the agency said.
During the month, OPEC crude oil production rose by around 410,000 bpd to 29.28 million bpd. Output of OPEC natural gas liquids increased by 110,000 bpd to 5.83 million bpd, bringing the group's total oil supply to 35.12 million bpd.
In contrast, oil production in non-OPEC countries declined by about 1.75 million bpd to around 71.46 million bpd.
Looking ahead, global oil supply is projected to increase by 2.4 million bpd in 2026 to average 108.6 million bpd. However, the IEA said supply growth has been revised down by around 90,000 bpd for the year, reflecting a front-loaded downward adjustment of 340,000 bpd in the first quarter following the cold snap.
By Firdevs Yuksel
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr