Global oil supply increased in October with a quicker-than-expected recovery in Libyan supplies and a production rebound in the North Sea to increase output by around 200,000 barrels per day (b/d) month on month (m-o-m), according to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) monthly oil report on Thursday.
October's supply rose to around 91.2 million barrels per day (mb/d), the report said.
"The increases more than offset hurricane losses in the US, further cuts to output from the UAE and a drop in biofuels, leaving output up 200,000 b/d m-o-m and 10 mb/d below a year ago," the report explained.
Production from countries participating in the OPEC+ agreement held largely steady in October with 103% overall compliance to the oil cut pact.
The IEA predicts that world oil supply could rise by more than 1 mb/d in November, as the US bounces back from hurricane shut-ins and if Libya continues to post strong gains.
The agency added that the 2021 global supply outlook would also be influenced by the outcome of the US elections.
"It is too early to determine how the policies of the next administration will affect relations with Iran, Venezuela and, not least, the domestic energy sector," the report said.
However, the agency expects the US, the largest producer outside the OPEC+ group, to see supply falls of 660,000 b/d in 2021 following a decline of 600,000 b/d this year.
- Global demand to fall in 2020 but recover in 2021
The agency now expects that global oil demand will decrease by 8.8 mb/d in 2020, or 400,000 barrels above the forecast in the previous report.
It also estimates that demand will rise by 5.8 mb/d in 2021, or 300,000 barrels higher than the previous forecast.
"Vaccines are unlikely to significantly boost demand until well into next year," the report said.
By Firdevs Yuksel