Global oil demand is expected to climb this year, surpassing earlier forecasts as softer prices, a brighter economic outlook and robust deliveries in advanced economies support consumption, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said Thursday.
According to the IEA's September Oil Market Report, world demand is projected to increase by 740,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, slightly higher than last month's forecast, as gains in advanced economies offset weaker growth in emerging markets.
OECD demand rose by 80,000 bpd in the first half of 2025, outpacing expectations on lower prices, but is set to contract in the final quarter by around 370,000 bpd as a return to normal winter temperatures erases last year’s surge in heating fuel use.
Non-OECD demand remains subdued, with Chinese deliveries falling short in July, leaving year-on-year growth flat. This weakness accounts for the full 310,000-bpd downgrade to global demand growth since January.
Looking ahead, oil demand growth is expected to continue into 2026 at a slower pace of 700,000 bpd, with non-OECD gains of 890,000 bpd offset by a 200,000-bpd decline in OECD consumption.
- Global oil supply rises to record 106.9 million bpd in August
Global oil supply edged up 20,000 bpd in August to a record 106.9 million, as OPEC+ continued rolling back output cuts and non-OPEC+ production remained near all-time highs.
OPEC+ production rose 80,000 bpd from July, with increases in core Middle East producers offsetting declines in Iran, Russia and Kazakhstan.
Non-OPEC+ output slipped 70,000 bpd, as Canada, the US and Brazil pulled back slightly from record levels.
Overall supply was up 3 million bpd from a year earlier, led by a 1.7 million-bpd gain from OPEC+.
- Global supply growth revised higher
Global oil supply growth has been revised up by 190,000 bpd for 2025 and 150,000 bpd for 2026.
Non-OPEC+ gains were raised 140,000 bpd for 2024 following EIA data revisions, with further upward adjustments of 60,000 bpd in 2025 and 10,000 bpd in 2026, driven by stronger output in Brazil, Argentina and Norway.
World production is expected to rise by 2.7 million bpd to 105.8 million this year and by 2.1 million to 107.9 million in 2026.
Non-OPEC+ will contribute 1.4 million bpd in 2025 and 1 million in 2026, led by US NGLs, Canadian crude and offshore production from the US, Brazil and Guyana.
OPEC+ is set to add 1.3 million bpd in 2025 and 1 million in 2026, matching non-OPEC+ growth next year.