The TurkStream natural gas pipeline, one of Russia's most strategic energy infrastructure projects of the past decade linking the Black Sea to Europe, has entered its sixth year of operation after coming online on Jan. 8, 2020.
First announced in December 2014 during a visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Türkiye, the project emerged as a core element of Moscow's strategy to reduce its dependence on gas transit via Ukraine.
The intergovernmental agreement was signed on Oct. 10, 2016, paving the way for the construction of two parallel offshore pipelines, each 930 kilometres long, running from Russia's Anapa region to Türkiye's Kiyikoy coast, alongside onshore connections within Türkiye. The offshore section was completed in 2018, with the system becoming ready for gas flows by Dec. 31, 2019.
With a total annual capacity of 31.5 billion cubic metres, TurkStream consists of two lines of 15.75 bcm each. One supplies Türkiye's domestic market, while the second delivers gas to European markets via Bulgaria.
The expiry and non-renewal of the five-year Ukraine gas transit agreement on Jan. 1, 2025, has elevated TurkStream to the only remaining pipeline route transporting Russian gas to Europe. As a result, analysts say the pipeline's strategic significance for both Türkiye's energy security and Europe's supply diversification has increased.
- TurkStream operating near capacity
Daniela Miccoli, senior gas analyst at Energy Aspects, said the utilisation rate of TurkStream, connected to Bulgaria through the Strandzha 2 entry point, has risen markedly in recent years.
"The pipeline operated close to full capacity in 2024-2025, compared with an average utilisation rate of around 80% in earlier years," Miccoli said.
However, she noted that the EU's plan to ban Russian gas imports by the end of 2027, with the ban expected to become legally binding in 2026, is likely to constrain medium-term flows through TurkStream.
"We expect TurkStream flows into Europe at about 3 billion cubic metres per year, from 2028, equal to Serbia's annual domestic gas demand," Miccoli said.
She added that Russian gas exports to Türkiye have remained stable at just over 20 bcm per year since 2020, and are expected to remain broadly unchanged despite Türkiye's growing portfolio of LNG supply agreements.
Miccoli also stressed that Türkiye's ambition to become a regional gas trading hub is increasingly driven by its expanding LNG portfolio, which provides flexibility between pipeline gas and LNG based on price differentials.
"BOTAS is also expected to boost revenues by redirecting additional FOB-based LNG cargoes to Europe and potentially Egypt in the coming years," she said.
- TurkStream underpins Türkiye's energy security
Alberic Mongrenier, executive director of the European Energy Security Initiative, said TurkStream's launch in early 2020 helped position Türkiye as a key gas transit country, but warned that the EU's goal of ending Russian gas imports limits the pipeline's long-term potential in Europe.
Following the Nord Stream sabotage and the end of Ukraine transit, Russian gas was rerouted through TurkStream, now the only pipeline capable of delivering Russian gas to Europe, Mongrenier noted.
"TurkStream provides Türkiye transit revenues, advantageous gas prices, and security of supply benefits," he said. "However, ambitions to create a regional gas hub and establish an Istanbul Gas Index are constrained by the geopolitical situation," Mongrenier added.
According to Mongrenier, Türkiye's hub role could expand if Azerbaijani gas flows via TANAP increase, Black Sea gas production rises, or if northern Iraq gas becomes available. "Ultimately, diversification will be key for Türkiye to achieve these goals," he concluded.
By Duygu Alhan
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr