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Gas to show strongest growth among fossil fuels by 2035

- Upstream sector will take lion's share from global natural gas investments, according to McKinsey

home > Natural Gas, Turkey 08.03.2021 10:46 Nuran Erkul

Gas to show strongest growth among fossil fuels by 2035

Natural gas is set to see the strongest demand growth among fossil fuels at 15% in the coming 15 years driven by increasing energy demand in emerging economies and the expanding use of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in more countries, Alessandro Agosta, partner at global management consulting firm, McKinsey & Company, told Anadolu Agency in an exclusive interview.

Due to confinement measures against the COVID-19 crisis, Agosta said that oil demand suffered while natural gas became more resilient.

According to the International Energy Agency data, global oil demand decreased by around 8% last year to historic low levels, while natural gas demand saw a much smaller drop of 2.5% down to 3.9 trillion cubic meters compared to 2019.

"It is more difficult to replace natural gas when it is used in cement, steel production. That's why we say that the decarbonization of the sector will not necessarily mean a reduction in gas use. There will be decarbonization but it will come from energy efficiency appliances or carbon capture technologies," he said, adding that these technologies will contribute to a greener future for gas.

Agosta stated that most of the absolute growth in natural gas demand will come from emerging and growing economies like China or Brazil, while Europe with its more mature gas market will have relatively lower demand growth.

LNG is expected to play a key role in the increasing natural gas demand worldwide.

Shell said in its latest LNG Outlook 2020 that global demand for LNG rose by 12.5% to 359 million tons in 2019, and is forecasted to double to 700 million tons by 2040. According to Shell, this significant increase reinforces LNG’s growing role in the transition to a lower-carbon energy system.

"We think that LNG is the segment of natural gas that will see the fastest growth. It is a proven technology and there is already a lot of activity to make a green LNG industry which is a good sign," Agosta noted.


- Price volatility likely to be higher

McKinsey projects that the share of LNG will reach 18% in the coming decade relative to the 13% share today.

"We are basically observing every year a 1-2% growth in the trade volume as there are more LNG consuming markets," Agosta said.

However, as it is difficult to keep an exact equilibrium between supply and demand in the LNG market, he said that price volatility is part of the trade.

"Even if it is difficult to project the direction of the price, we think that volatility will be likely higher than what we have seen even in 2020 which was, of course, a disruption," Agosta underlined.

Spot market LNG prices climbed to record high levels in January 2021 as demand surged due to the extreme winter conditions in Asia amid low inventories. The freezing cold temperatures in Texas, one of the most important LNG centers, also contributed to price volatility last month when the LNG trade and natural gas production in the country was badly hit due to blockages from frozen natural gas lines on the distribution network.


- New gas-producing markets could come to fore

Agosta explained that in a growing global natural gas industry, it is difficult to precisely project the volume of investments, however, he said the upstream sector would take the lion's share of capital investments.

Some new countries, like Mozambique in Africa, and others in the Middle East could increase their gas production in addition to the big traditional producers like Russia, Azerbaijan, Norway and North America, he said.

Agosta also stated that the natural gas pipelines would continue to remain very important despite the growth in LNG.

"We forecast that LNG's share will increase to 18% which means that around 80% of the gas will go through pipelines. In mature markets like Europe, there will inevitably be less need for large-scale new pipelines because of market saturation. However, there will be growing geography, like in China or Brazil where we will still see a lot of developments in terms of pipelines," Agosta said.


- Turkey's gas discovery "a big success"

Turkey’s natural gas discovery of 405 billion cubic meters in the Black Sea last year has cemented its key role in the region. Agosta called it a “big success” and said the country’s geographical position makes it very important as a central gas distribution center in the region.

The Black Sea gas discovery was Turkey's largest ever in its history, and the biggest offshore gas find globally in 2020.

Turkey meets the majority of its natural gas needs through imports. The discovery is expected to reduce Turkey's gas import bill, which totals around $12 billion annually.

The country imported 48.1 billion cubic meters of natural gas last year, marking a 6.5% increase compared to 2019 levels.


By Nuran Erkul Kaya

Anadolu Agency

energy@aa.com.tr



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Spot market natural gas prices for Wednesday, March 24

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,357 Turkish liras
26.03.2021 Natural Gas , Turkey

Valeura Energy's revenue down 16% in 2020

- Decrease is mainly due to lower realized gas prices, says company
25.03.2021 Natural Gas , Finance , Turkey , General

Spot market natural gas prices for Tuesday, March 23

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,399 Turkish liras
24.03.2021 Natural Gas , Turkey

Turkey’s solar power generation soars 50%: Energy min.

- Country ranks 3rd in Europe and 9th in world in terms of added installed solar capacity since 2014, Fatih Donmez says
25.03.2021 Natural Gas , Solar , World

Spot market natural gas prices for Monday, March 22

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,287 Turkish liras
23.03.2021 Natural Gas , Turkey

Norwegian LNG vessel to arrive in Turkey on March 27

- Vessel is sailing under flag of Bahamas
23.03.2021 Lng/Lpg , Turkey , General

Spot market natural gas prices for Sunday, March 21

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,273 Turkish liras
22.03.2021 Natural Gas , Turkey

Qatar Petroleum signs LNG deal with China's Sinopec

- China is main driver of growth in global LNG market, adopting increasingly progressive environmental policies
23.03.2021 Lng/Lpg , Energy Security , International Relations , Energy Projects

Spot market natural gas prices for Saturday, March 20

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,255 Turkish liras
22.03.2021 Natural Gas , Turkey , General

Spot market natural gas prices for Friday, March 19

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,291 Turkish liras
21.03.2021 Natural Gas , Turkey

Egypt praises Turkey's moves towards rapprochement

- Egypt's Information Minister Osama Heikal hails Turkish recent decisions as 'good sign'
20.03.2021 Natural Gas , Turkey , Middle East-Africa

Kenya feels betrayed by Somalia over maritime dispute

- Maritime delimitation case between East African countries has already started at ICJ without Kenya’s participation
20.03.2021 Natural Gas , Oil , Middle East-Africa

Spot market natural gas prices for Thursday, March 18

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,296 Turkish liras
19.03.2021 Natural Gas , Lng/Lpg

US warns entities to abandon Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline

- Any entity involved in pipeline risks US sanctions, Secretary of State Antony Blinken says
19.03.2021 Natural Gas , Projects , International Organization , Energy Projects , Eurasia

Spot market natural gas prices for Wednesday, March 17

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,297 Turkish liras
19.03.2021 Natural Gas , Turkey

Algerian LNG vessel arrives in Turkey

- Lalla Fatma N'Soumer vessel reaches destination at Turkey's Marmara Ereglisi LNG terminal on Wednesday
18.03.2021 Lng/Lpg , Turkey , Middle East-Africa , General

Spot market natural gas prices for Tuesday, March 16

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,300 Turkish liras
17.03.2021 Natural Gas , Downstream

Turkey's position on E. Med remains unchanged: Erdogan

- No concessions possible for Turkey in Eastern Mediterranean, says Turkish president
17.03.2021 Natural Gas , Energy Diplomacy , Energy Security

Spot market natural gas prices for Monday, March 15

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,307 Turkish liras
16.03.2021 Natural Gas , Turkey

Spot market natural gas prices for Sunday, March 14

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,308 Turkish liras
16.03.2021 Natural Gas , Turkey , General

Algerian LNG vessel to arrive in Turkey on March 17

- Vessel is sailing under flag of Bahamas
15.03.2021 Lng/Lpg , Turkey , Middle East-Africa , General

Spot market natural gas prices for Saturday, March 13

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,310 Turkish liras
14.03.2021 Natural Gas , Turkey

Spot market natural gas prices for Friday, March 12

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,286 Turkish liras
13.03.2021 Natural Gas , Finance , Turkey , General

Spot market natural gas prices for Thursday, March 11

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,311 Turkish liras
12.03.2021 Natural Gas , Lng/Lpg

Israel in contact with Turkey over gas: Netanyahu

- Netanyahu says Israel also holding talks with Egypt, Greece, Greek Cypriot administration
12.03.2021 Natural Gas , Energy Diplomacy , International Organization , Energy Projects

Spot market natural gas prices for Wednesday, March 10

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,320 Turkish liras
12.03.2021 Natural Gas , Turkey

Algerian LNG vessel arrives in Turkey on March 10

- Tessala vessel reaches destination in Turkey on Wednesday
11.03.2021 Lng/Lpg , Turkey , General

Palestine vetoes UAE membership in EastMed Gas Forum

- Israel said in September it proposed UAE’s inclusion in EastMed Gas Forum
11.03.2021 Natural Gas , Energy Diplomacy , Middle East-Africa

Spot market natural gas prices for Tuesday, March 9

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,319 Turkish liras
10.03.2021 Natural Gas , Turkey

Israel says ready to cooperate with Turkey on E. Med gas

- Israeli Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz stresses importance of EastMed gas pipeline project
10.03.2021 Natural Gas , Energy Diplomacy , Turkey , Middle East-Africa

Agreement with Turkey in interest of Libya: Dbeibah

- Prime minister-designate says Libya gained 'fine' share of natural gas after maritime deal with Turkey
10.03.2021 Natural Gas , Energy Diplomacy , Turkey , Middle East-Africa

Spot market natural gas prices for Monday, March 8

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,296 Turkish liras
10.03.2021 Natural Gas , Shale/Unconventional

Spot market natural gas prices for Sunday, March 7

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,297 Turkish liras
08.03.2021 Natural Gas , Finance , General

Algerian LNG vessel arrives in Turkey

- Lalla Fatma N'Soumer vessel reaches destination at Turkey's Marmara Ereglisi LNG terminal on Saturday morning
08.03.2021 Lng/Lpg , Turkey , General

Gas to show strongest growth among fossil fuels by 2035

- Upstream sector will take lion's share from global natural gas investments, according to McKinsey
09.03.2021 Natural Gas , Turkey

Spot market natural gas prices for Saturday, March 6

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,294 Turkish liras
08.03.2021 Natural Gas , Turkey

Spot market natural gas prices for Friday, March 5

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,295 Turkish liras
06.03.2021 Natural Gas , Turkey

Spot market natural gas prices for Thursday, March 4

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,272 Turkish liras
05.03.2021 Natural Gas , Finance , General

Spot market natural gas prices for Wednesday, March 3

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,273 Turkish liras
04.03.2021 Natural Gas , Turkey

Algerian LNG vessel arrives in Turkey on March 3

- Berge Arzew vessel reaches destination in Turkey on Wednesday
04.03.2021 Lng/Lpg , Turkey , Middle East-Africa , General

Turkey says could sign deal with Egypt on maritime zone

- Foreign minister says Turkey welcomes Egypt's respect for its continental shelf in Eastern Mediterranean
04.03.2021 Natural Gas , Energy Diplomacy , Turkey , Middle East-Africa

Spot market natural gas prices for Tuesday, March 2

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,274 Turkish liras
03.03.2021 Natural Gas , Turkey

Spot market natural gas prices for Monday, March 1

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,285 Turkish liras
02.03.2021 Natural Gas , Turkey

Spot market natural gas prices for Sunday, Feb. 28

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,283 Turkish liras
01.03.2021 Natural Gas , Turkey

Qatar awards EPC contract for North Field LNG to Samsung

- Contract, valued at more than $2B., is awarded on lump sum basis and is second major EPC contract award for NFE project
01.03.2021 Natural Gas , International Relations , Energy Projects , Middle East-Africa

Algerian LNG vessel to arrive in Turkey on March 6

- Vessel is sailing under flag of Bahamas
01.03.2021 Lng/Lpg , Turkey , General

Spot market natural gas prices for Saturday, Feb. 27

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,275 Turkish liras
01.03.2021 Natural Gas , Turkey

Spot market electricity prices for Sunday, Feb. 28

- Energy Exchange Istanbul (EXIST) data shows electricity market trade volume amounts to 139.83 million Turkish liras
27.02.2021 Natural Gas , Finance , Turkey , General

Spot market natural gas prices for Friday, Feb. 26

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,247 Turkish liras
28.02.2021 Natural Gas , Finance , Turkey , General

Spot market natural gas prices for Thursday, Feb. 25

- 1,000 cubic meters of natural gas on spot market costs 1,242 Turkish liras
27.02.2021 Natural Gas , Turkey

Turkey's energy import bill down 35.8% in January 2021

- Last month, overall energy imports fall due to rise in country's domestic and renewable energy production
26.02.2021 Natural Gas , Oil , Projects , Stock Market , Energy Projects , Turkey
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