Azerbaijan’s Absheron natural gas field offers a new alternative for Turkey's gas supply routes, energy experts concur.
“I think the best market for the Absheron gas outside of Azerbaijan domestic market could be the Turkish market due to geographic proximity and demand growth. I believe that Absheron gas field’s operator, Total, has already started market tests and should hold meetings with potential buyers to investigate the market dynamics,” Gulmira Rzayeva, energy expert at Center for Strategic Studies under the President of the Republic of Azerbaijan told Anadolu Agency.
Rzayeva explained that the Absheron natural gas field project is currently at a developmental phase.
“Currently, the project is in interim status as exploration works have been done but the appraisal stage, which usually takes 3 years has not been started yet. This is due to no availability of semi-submersible drilling rigs in the country. This issue is being resolved by construction of a new rig which will be ready by the beginning of 2017. The partners are planning to start Front End Engineering Design (FEED) of the field in 2016 and drilling well in 2017 when semi-submersible drilling rigs will be constructed. The final Investment Decision (FID) of the field is expected to be achieved in 2018 and first production in late 2021,” she said.
The Azeri expert also emphasized Turkey's rapidly growing demand for natural gas and its need to source alternative supply chains.
“Turkish gas demand may reach 70 billion cubic meter (bcm) in 2035 from the 45 bcm in 2013. This means that Turkey will need an additional 10 bcm by 2020 and 15 bcm by 2025. Moreover, some of the long-term contracts with current suppliers will be expired in 2020s. Turkey will either need to find new suppliers to substitute expired contracts or to extend them,' Rzayeva said.
She added that Turkey may not want to extend its current contracts with Gazprom depending on the political situation. For instance, Gazprom's 4 bcm gas contracts with private buyers in Turkey will expire in 2021 and the long-term contract with Botas [Turkey's state-owned crude oil and natural gas pipelines and trading company] for 16 bcm for the Blue Stream project is due to expire in 2026. Consequently, she recommended that Absheron gas could be used as a suitable alternative source for Turkey.
Assoc. Prof. Rovshan Ibrahimov, energy expert at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in South Korea also underlined the significance of Absheron gas for the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline (TANAP).
'It is expected that TANAP's capacity in the mid and long term will increase. So, one option for gas for TANAP is from the Absheron gas field. Azerbaijan and its consortium members welcome the possibility of Azerbaijani gas exports to the Turkish market,' Ibrahimov told Anadolu Agency adding that Azeri natural gas could become a viable substitute to Russian gas in the mid to long term.
Ibrahimov said that regardless of the relationship between Russia and Turkey, the country will still need to diversify supplies, which Absheron can fulfill along with Umud, Babek and the Shah Deniz natural gas fields.
The Absheron natural gas field is an offshore gas field in the Azerbaijan sector of the Caspian Sea. The field is located 100 kilometers southeast of Baku and 25 kilometers northeast of the Shah Deniz natural gas field. The field holds 350 bcm of natural gas and 45 million tonnes of gas condensate, according to the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR).
Participants in the Absheron gas field include Total witih 40 percent, SOCAR with 40 percent and GDF Suez at 20 percent.
By Ugur Ertas
Anadolu Agency
ugur.ertas@aa.com.tr