Turkey's cumulative natural gas discoveries of 540 billion cubic meters (bcm) in the Black Sea could cover around 12 years of Turkey's current gas demand if fully recovered, according to principal Wood Mackenzie analyst, Ashley Sherman, on Monday.
Sherman said the continued appraisal of the giant Sakarya discovery and new exploration wells by Turkey’s drillships would ensure further resource growth.
However, he advised that Turkey’s strategic focus shift even more from adding resources to developing the volumes already discovered.
"That means consistent progress offshore - with wells and pipelines - and onshore at the gas plant site at Filyos. A 2023 date for first production still looks ambitious, even from the smaller-scale Phase One. Reaping the supply rewards on such an accelerated timeline remains complex and expensive, no matter the political and economic importance," he explained.
Turkey’s Black Sea exploration success has strengthened its negotiating hand with its piped gas import sources - Azerbaijan, Iran and Russia, giving it more ability to push for lower prices, lower volumes and greater contract flexibility, he said.
"That will not only be seen in renewal conversations still to come. It’s already true in current talks with as close a partner as Azerbaijan, for a long-term contract that expired in April and is still yet to be renewed," he said.
After Turkey's gas discovery of 405 bcm in the Black Sea, the Fatih drillship drilled the Turkali-1 and Turkali-2 testing wells and the Amasra-1 exploratory well in the northern part of the Sakarya gas field.
Fatih is currently drilling the Turkali-3 testing well, while another drillship, Kanuni, is carrying out completion tests at the Turkali-2 well.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced the discovery of 135 bcm in the Amasra-1 well drilled by Fatih, bringing Turkey's gas discoveries in the Black Sea up to 540 bcm.
By Murat Temizer