Oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has sharply declined as rising security risks brought transits close to a standstill, leaving more than 700 vessels clustered on both sides of the key chokepoint.
Located at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, the Strait of Hormuz connects Middle Eastern oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) production to global markets via the Gulf of Oman and the Indian Ocean. Around 20% of global daily oil consumption, roughly 20 million barrels, passes through this strategic corridor.
Following joint US and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend, ship operators suspended crossings amid soaring insurance costs.
According to an analysis by real-time data analytics firm Kpler, 21 million barrels were transported by 15 tankers on Feb. 27, rising to 21.6 million barrels on 18 vessels on Saturday. However, on March 1 only three tankers carrying 2.8 million barrels transited the strait.
With average daily flows so far this year at 19.8 million barrels, shipments on March 1 marked an 86% drop from the 2026 average.
The sharp drop suggests that cargoes were initially rushed out ahead of mounting risks, followed by a near standstill in crossings as conditions deteriorated.
As of today, 706 non-Iranian tankers are waiting on either side of the strait. Of these, 334 crude oil tankers, 109 vessels carrying dirty petroleum products and 263 transporting clean petroleum products are positioned at various points across the Persian Gulf (west of the strait), the Gulf of Oman (east of the strait) and the Arabian Sea.
Even if crude loading operations continue inside the Gulf, reduced eastbound departures through the strait and longer waiting times for cargoes to pass the bottleneck are expected to delay arrivals and push up freight costs.
A slowdown in eastbound exits, combined with extended queuing times for vessels and tonnage seeking to transit the chokepoint, could further disrupt supply chains and increase transportation expenses.
- Developments in Strait of Hormuz
Following the joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran that began over the weekend, reports emerged alleging that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps had sent messages to ships intending to use the Strait of Hormuz stating that "no vessels will be permitted to pass."
Despite claims that these warnings were broadcast to ship crews operating in the Persian Gulf via the international hailing and distress frequency VHF Channel 16, no official statement has been issued confirming a formal closure of the strait.
Iranian media, however, have claimed that the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut.
Some container ships were seen making U-turns to avoid the waterway, while several of the world's leading container shipping companies suspended transits through the strait due to heightened security risks.
United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) said in a statement on Sunday that the maritime security level for the Strait of Hormuz had been raised to "critical," the highest risk category, following confirmation of multiple attacks on commercial vessels over the weekend in the Gulf of Oman, near Musandam, and in the coastal waters of the United Arab Emirates.
Reporting by Nuran Erkul in London
Writing by Humeyra Ayaz
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr