Iran continues exporting crude oil, mainly to China, despite escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, allowing Tehran to maintain a critical source of revenue during the conflict.
The Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies pass, remains central to energy markets as regional tensions intensify.
Data from Kpler and TankerTrackers show that China purchases more than 80% of Iran's crude oil exports. Before tensions escalated in the region, Chinese refineries were importing around 1.3–1.4 million barrels of Iranian crude per day.
Despite the ongoing conflict, Iran continues to ship large volumes of crude through the Strait of Hormuz. TankerTrackers reported that at least 11–12 million barrels have passed through the waterway since Feb. 28.
Most of the oil is purchased by independent refineries at discounted prices compared with international benchmarks, while US sanctions have effectively made China the largest buyer of Iranian crude.
Experts say Iran's ability to maintain oil sales during the conflict highlights the country's heavy reliance on crude exports and underscores China's role as Tehran's primary energy partner.
- Maritime disruptions remain immediate risk
Alan Gelder, senior vice president of Refining, Chemicals and Oil Markets at Wood Mackenzie, said Iran's economic model depends heavily on keeping oil exports flowing through regional shipping routes.
While Iran continues exporting crude, Gelder said that disruptions to maritime logistics could still pose a major risk to the country's export-dependent economy.
"Iran's export-led economy is seriously challenged by closure of the Strait of Hormuz," he said.
"In these early days of the conflict, the paralysis of the maritime logistics is the primary challenge, but continued US/Israel destruction of its internal infrastructure will no doubt weigh heavily on the Iranian economy," he added.
- Sanctioned oil flows complicate global markets
Despite sanctions, Iranian crude continues to reach global markets through alternative trading channels, creating what analysts describe as a "parallel market."
"The sanctioned barrels supplied by Iran and Russia do create a parallel market, which reduces the call on 'commercial' volumes," Gelder said.
China remains the key destination for Iranian crude, primarily through independent refiners that operate outside the US financial system.
"China is the sole buyer of Iranian crude, by independent refiners that supply the domestic market that avoid the US financial system, with some of the volumes being stored," Gelder said.
However, he noted that sanctioned barrels still represent a relatively small share of the overall market.
"In a global market of over 100 million b/d, these 'sanctioned' barrels are a small volume," he said.
Still, experts say Iran's continued oil sales during the conflict highlight the country's reliance on crude exports and China's role as its primary energy partner, even as geopolitical tensions raise risks for global energy markets.
- Oil exports remain vital for Iran's economy
Energy markets expert Vandana Hari, said Iran's ability to continue exporting oil remains crucial for sustaining its economy during the conflict.
"A prolonged military conflict is going to leave the Iranian economy crippled, something that will likely take years to rebuild, but it is also hurting all the neighbouring Gulf economies," Hari said.
According to Hari, the destruction of infrastructure could threaten the country's primary economic lifeline.
"Iran is facing not only destruction of its military and naval capabilities, but also its civilian infrastructure. If its oil and gas production and related infrastructure is also damaged, it risks losing the key avenue of rebuilding its economy," she said.
By Humeyra Ayaz
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr