India's crude oil imports from Russia rose sharply in early March as supply disruptions in the Middle East tightened global energy markets and forced the country to seek alternative sources.
India's crude imports from Russia increased to an average of 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) between March 1 and March 12, marking a 41% rise compared with January and a 45% increase from February levels, according to international data analytics firm Vortexa.
The surge comes as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have significantly disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy trade.
Following joint military strikes by the US and Israel on Iran and Tehran's retaliatory attacks, the waterway has effectively been closed to vessels linked to the countries involved in the conflict.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that nearly 20 million bpd of crude oil and petroleum products normally transit the strait, and the near-complete halt in flows represents one of the largest supply disruptions in oil market history.
The agency also estimates that around 10 million bpd of production from Gulf countries has been taken offline this month as a result of the crisis.
- India's reliance on Middle East oil
India is among the countries most dependent on Middle Eastern crude supplies. Before the disruption, the country met about 52% of its daily crude demand of roughly 5 million bpd from regional producers including Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar.
S&P Global data shows that India's strategic reserves of crude oil and petroleum products are sufficient to cover 74 days of net imports.
The latest shift toward Russian crude also follows recent policy changes. US President Donald Trump had warned last August that Washington could impose an additional 25% tariff if India continued purchasing Russian oil, and New Delhi had reportedly agreed last month to halt such imports.
However, as tensions in the Middle East intensified and threatened refinery operations, the US issued a 30-day waiver allowing India to purchase Russian crude to maintain fuel production.
Separately, Washington also approved the purchase of Russian oil currently loaded on tankers at sea until April 11 in a move aimed at stabilizing global supply.
Current estimates suggest that around 130 million barrels of Russian crude are stored on tankers worldwide, down from about 160 million barrels in January.
- Further increases expected
Despite the recent surge, analysts say Russian crude alone will not fully compensate for the loss of Middle Eastern supplies.
Ivan Mathews, Head of APAC Analysis at Vortexa, said India's increased Russian imports provide a short-term logistical buffer but cannot replace the approximately 2.7 million bpd of crude normally shipped to India via the Strait of Hormuz.
"We expect India to continue importing Russian crude oil because refineries are looking for new shipments to compensate for the decrease in crude oil from the Middle East due to the ongoing conflicts in the region," Mathews said.
He added that the 30-day US waiver is likely to boost spot purchases of Russian oil already at sea and could lead to further increases in India's Russian crude imports in the coming weeks.
However, Mathews warned that the additional volumes will remain insufficient to fully offset the supply shortfall from the Middle East. India's total crude imports are therefore expected to decline on a monthly basis in March, potentially forcing refineries to draw on existing inventories to maintain operations.
Reporting by Nuran Erkul Kaya in London
Writing by Humeyra Ayaz
Anadolu Agency
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