Following Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz to maritime traffic, regional producers have begun seeking alternative export routes to sustain oil and LNG flows amid mounting supply risks.
Regional tensions escalated rapidly after direct military operations launched by the US and Israel against Iran on Feb. 28, and Iran responded by carrying out retaliatory strikes targeting US military bases in Gulf countries.
Amid the escalation, on March 2 Iran said that vessel passages through the Strait of Hormuz would no longer be allowed and that ships attempting to transit would be targeted.
The closure of the Strait, linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, has emerged as the most critical development affecting global energy markets.
As a result, an estimated 20 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil and petroleum products have been prevented from reaching international markets, pushing regional exporters to urgently search for alternative export routes.
- Strategic weight of Hormuz
Last year, an average of 15 million bpd of crude oil and 5 million bpd of petroleum products were transported through the Strait of Hormuz, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). This volume accounted for roughly 25% of global seaborne oil trade, with about 80% of shipments bound for Asian markets.
Saudi Arabia ranked as the largest exporter via the Strait, shipping an average of 5.43 million bpd of crude oil and 800,000 bpd of petroleum products, underscoring Riyadh’s reliance on the waterway and the scale of the impact from the blockade.
Iraq followed with daily exports of 3.32 million bpd of crude and 310,000 bpd of petroleum products, while the UAE exported 2.02 million bpd of crude and 1.22 million bpd of petroleum products.
Other major exporters included Iran with 1.69 million bpd of crude and 720,000 bpd of products, and Kuwait with 1.4 million bpd of crude and 970,000 bpd of products. Qatar shipped about 730,000 bpd of crude and 690,000 bpd of petroleum products. Exports from the Saudi Arabia-Kuwait Neutral Zone reached 350,000 bpd of crude, while Bahrain shipped 210,000 bpd of petroleum products.
While Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Qatar and Bahrain depend almost entirely on the Strait of Hormuz for exports, only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have alternative routes.
- Limited alternatives
Robin Mills, CEO of Qamar Energy, said the options for bypassing the strait are extremely limited.
"There are only really two major alternative routes for oil: the East-West pipeline in Saudi Arabia to the Red Sea, with a 5-7 million bpd capacity, and the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline in the UAE, which has a 1.5-1.8 million bpd capacity," Mills said.
He warned that rerouting exports does not eliminate risk. "There are further logistical constraints in the Red Sea because of the threat of Houthi attacks in the southern Red Sea. Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia is gearing up to switch its exports to Yanbu," Mills added.
Justin Dargin, senior fellow at the Middle East Council on Global Affairs, said the principal alternatives to Hormuz are limited.
Saudi Arabia can redirect crude through its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, with a capacity of roughly 5 million bpd, while the UAE can move approximately 1.5 million bpd through the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline to the Gulf of Oman.
Oman's exports already bypass Hormuz entirely. "Beyond these routes, however, there are no large-scale, immediately deployable alternatives capable of absorbing substantial additional volumes in the short term," Dargin said.
He noted that while Hormuz typically handles 17-20 million bpd, bypass systems could offset only around 6-6.5 million bpd even if at full capacity. "That still leaves more than 10 million bpd exposed. In practical terms, these alternatives can cushion a shock; they cannot neutralize it," he said, describing them as "shock absorbers rather than substitutes."
The combined capacity of alternative pipelines is estimated at 3.5-5.5 million bpd, according to the IEA, far below the roughly 20 million bpd that usually transits the strait.
- Even limited alternatives face growing risks
Saudi Arabia’s East–West Crude Pipeline (Petroline) has a design capacity of 5 million bpd, while the country reported in March 2025 that capacity had been raised to 7 million bpd, a level that has yet to be tested for sustained flows, with around 2 million bpd currently in use.
In the UAE, the Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP) has a reported capacity of up to 1.8 million bpd, with exports of around 1.1 million bpd, leaving roughly 700,000 bpd of spare capacity available.
Jamie Ingram, managing editor at MEES, warned that even these limited alternatives face growing risks.
He described Saudi Arabia's Yanbu option as "realistic," but stressed that it should not be expected to replace most flows from Ras Tanura.
"The biggest risk is that if the situation escalates further, the pipeline itself is vulnerable to attacks. Any shipments from Yanbu to Asia would have to pass through the Bab al-Mandeb, which some companies remain worried about," he added.
Ingram also said that "the UAE’s alternative via Fujairah is now under threat after an Iranian attack on facilities there."
Meanwhile, Iran’s Goreh-Jask pipeline, launched in 2021, is not considered a viable crude export route, as the pipeline and Jask terminal remain effectively non-operational despite a one-off test shipment in late 2024.
Amid these constraints, Egypt has offered support, with Petroleum and Mineral Resources Minister Karim Badawi saying the Suez-Mediterranean (SUMED) pipeline, which has a capacity of 2.5 million bpd, is ready to help transport Saudi crude from the Red Sea to the Mediterranean.
- LNG bottleneck
More than 112 billion cubic meters (bcm) of liquefied natural gas (LNG), accounting for about 20% of global LNG trade, transited the Strait of Hormuz last year, with roughly 90% destined for Asian markets.
Qatar shipped about 93% of its 112 bcm LNG exports through the strait, while the UAE routed around 96% of its 7 bcm exports via the same passage.
"For gas, there is no alternative route available now at all," Mills said.
Dargin warned that Qatar would be particularly exposed, noting that even a short disruption would quickly reverberate through global LNG markets, as already reflected in price movements.
Excluding deliveries to Kuwait and pipeline gas transported through the Dolphin pipeline to Oman, no viable alternatives exist to move these LNG volumes to global markets.
By Gokce Topbas and Firdevs Yuksel
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr