Governments plan to produce far more fossil fuels than climate targets allow, a report warned on Monday, with 2030 output projected to exceed levels consistent with limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius by 120% and 2 degrees by 77%.
"Achieving these plans would take the world further from the goals of the Paris Agreement, even as countries submit new climate commitments intended to fulfill their contributions to the pact," Canada-based think tank International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD) said in a statement.
The 2025 Production Gap Report, published by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI), Climate Analytics, and IISD, assesses governments' planned coal, oil, and gas production against pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement.
In 2023, the same assessment found that production levels were on track to overshoot the 1.5-degree pathway by 110% and the 2-degree pathway by 69%.
The new findings underscore the importance of upholding the 2023 UAE Consensus at COP28, which advocates for transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems and phasing out inefficient subsidies, it added.
- Main findings
According to the report, governments now plan even higher levels of coal production to 2035 and gas production to 2050, while oil output continues to climb through mid-century.
To meet Paris Agreement goals, "the world must now undertake steeper and faster reductions in fossil fuel production to compensate for lack of progress so far," the authors warned.
They added that expanding fossil fuel infrastructure risks wasting public funds on projects destined to become stranded assets. A just transition will require deliberate, coordinated policies, the report said, noting that while a handful of producers have begun aligning with climate goals, most have not.
The report analyzed 20 major fossil-fuel-producing countries responsible for about 80% of global production, including Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, India, Norway, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Russia, the US, and the UK.
According to the report, 17 of the 20 still plan to increase production of at least one fossil fuel to 2030, and 11 expect higher production levels in 2030 than they had planned just two years ago.
Six countries now have domestic production plans aligned with net-zero targets, up from four in 2023.
Commenting on the findings, Christiana Figueres, former executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), said that the report should be taken as "both a warning and a guide."
"Renewables will inevitably crowd out fossil fuels completely, but we need deliberate action now to close the gap on time," Figueres said. "What we need now is courage and solidarity to move forward at great speed with the just transition."
By Handan Kazanci
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr