Europe's push to expand liquefied natural gas (LNG) import terminals is slowing, suggesting the continent may have overestimated future gas demand, according to data from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA) on Thursday.
Europe's LNG regasification capacity grew 13% in 2023 and 8% in 2024, but is expected to rise just 2% this year, IEEFA's updated European LNG Tracker shows.
IEEFA forecasts that by 2030, Europe's overall gas use will drop 15% and LNG imports will decline about 20%.
The slowdown follows a surge in LNG dependence after Russian pipeline flows through Ukraine ended Jan. 1. European LNG imports jumped 24% year over year in the first half of 2025 as gas demand briefly rebounded.
The US has reinforced its position as Europe's main supplier of LNG.
LNG imports from the US increased by 46% year on year in the first half of 2025, accounting for 57% of the continent's LNG imports.
Germany and France illustrate how Europe's LNG boom is starting to lose steam. A floating storage and regasification unit (FSRU) at Germany's Mukran port halted operations about a year after commissioning, while a French court ordered the removal of TotalEnergies' idle FSRU at Le Havre, which has not been used since August 2024.
In Greece, a technical issue slashed utilization at one terminal to 2%, and Germany sublet another FSRU to Jordan due to commissioning delays.
Despite EU sanctions, Europe's imports of Russian LNG rose 2% year on year in the first half of 2025, reaching a record high for any six-month period.
The bloc plans to ban Russian LNG imports in 2027, yet volumes from Russia increased 7% year on year through June. France received 41% of those imports, followed by Belgium (28%), Spain (20%), the Netherlands (9%) and Portugal (2%).
From the beginning of 2022 to June 2025, EU countries spent about €120 billion on pipeline gas and LNG imports from Russia, the IEEFA added.
"Europe has installed or expanded 19 LNG terminals since the beginning of 2022 as it pivots away from imports of Russian pipeline gas," said Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz, lead energy analyst, Europe, at IEEFA.
"Yet a series of recent terminal cancellations and closures suggests that European countries have overstated the continent's LNG demand," Jaller-Makarewicz added.
"European countries that continue to build or expand LNG terminals risk investing in unnecessary infrastructure as the energy transition accelerates," she added.
By Handan Kazanci
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr