The European Union leads the world in reducing emissions but faces soaring investment needs in power grids and public resistance to higher energy costs, according to a new report by French energy major TotalEnergies.
"The European Union is leading the way in reducing emissions by continuing to decarbonize its electricity mix, but faces massive investment needs in its electricity grids," the company said in its Energy Outlook 2025, released on Tuesday.
The bloc "is confronted with the dual necessity of preserving the competitiveness of its industry and overcoming the reluctance of its population to accept the additional costs associated with decarbonizing energy use, with stagnant penetration of electric cars and heat pumps in particular," it added.
According to the report, the US has not only achieved energy independence through shale oil and gas, but it has also become a net exporter of gas in 2017 and petroleum products in 2020.
The country has used its abundant domestic gas production at competitive prices to cut emissions by gradually replacing coal-fired power plants with gas-fired power plants, the report explained.
China continues to expand its role in low-carbon technologies through integration across value chains and the export of solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles. The report said these trends promote innovation and lower costs.
At the same time, China is adding new coal-fired power capacity, though newer technologies and the growing share of renewable power are gradually reducing the carbon intensity of its electricity mix. The report said these trends could allow China’s emissions to peak in the coming years.
- Three global scenarios outline possible energy futures
The Energy Outlook 2025 presents three scenarios for global energy through 2050.
According to the Trends scenario, primary energy demand for coal in the global energy mix gradually declines, approaching by 2050 the level it had in 2000.
Global demand for petroleum products increases and plateaus by 2040 before beginning a slow decline. Demand for gas continues to grow until 2040, before reaching a plateau. This scenario leads to an estimated temperature increase of between +2.6° and +2.8°C by 2100.
In the Momentum scenario, fossil fuels continue to meet half of the increase in energy demand in India and globally due to insufficient investment in low-carbon alternatives, leading to an estimated temperature rise of between 2.2°C and 2.4°C by 2100.
In the Rupture scenario, a faster decline in coal use and greater electrification sharply boost low-carbon power generation, limiting global warming to between 1.7°C and 1.9°C by 2100.
Across all scenarios, TotalEnergies said electricity demand will grow significantly, natural gas will serve as a transition fuel, and new oil and gas resources will be needed to offset natural field declines.
By Handan Kazanci
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr