British energy company bp projects that global carbon emissions could fall by only 25% by 2050 under current policies, while a faster energy transition could lead to a 90% reduction.
According to bp's Energy Outlook 2025 report, under current trends, global warming is set to exceed the 2C target, while faster emissions cuts will depend largely on how quickly emerging economies decarbonize their energy systems.
The report outlines two scenarios for the possible evolution of the global energy system by 2050, the "Current Trajectory" and "Below 2°C" pathways.
Under the Current Trajectory, existing climate and energy policies, global targets and commitments to reduce carbon emissions result in a gradual decline in emissions from the 2030s onward. By 2050, emissions are projected to be about 25% lower than in 2023. However, this pathway would push global warming beyond 2C.
In the "Below 2°C" scenario, if behavioral and social changes, tighter climate policies, faster progress in energy efficiency, and wider adoption of low-carbon energy sources occur, emissions could fall by 90% by 2050 compared with 2023.
- Oil, coal, and natural gas outlook
The report notes that in both scenarios, electricity demand doubles, wind and solar become the dominant sources of power generation, and the share of fossil fuels declines.
However, the trajectory of natural gas demand, as well as the extent of low-carbon hydrogen and carbon capture technologies, will depend on the pace of the energy transition.
Although global oil demand is expected to decline by 2050, oil is expected to continue playing a significant role in the energy system for at least the next 10–15 years.
Over the same period, coal consumption is projected to decrease, while solar and wind energy are expected to grow rapidly, becoming the leading sources of power generation due to their sustained competitiveness.
The outlook for natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) remains uncertain, depending on how fast the global energy transition progresses. Demand for natural gas and LNG imports is expected to increase in growing and industrializing economies, but could decline if the transition accelerates.
- Role of AI in energy consumption and transition
The report also highlights the growing impact of artificial intelligence (AI) on the energy system. The rapid rise in AI use has driven up the electricity consumption of data centers, contributing to higher global power demand.
At the same time, AI has the potential to accelerate the energy transition. The development of new materials for solar panels and carbon capture, more efficient battery chemistries, and improvements in the design and performance of hydrogen systems are cited as examples.
Further advances in AI could even pave the way for breakthroughs, such as the development of advanced biofuels or practical nuclear fusion.
AI can also enhance the operational efficiency of energy systems by enabling more effective planning and management of electricity grids, helping to forecast demand fluctuations and optimize battery storage.
According to the report, AI could make power grids "smarter" by integrating large numbers of small assets such as electric vehicles, rooftop solar panels, and smart thermostats.
It is also being used in fossil fuel facilities and power systems to predict faults more accurately, thereby improving safety, reducing downtime, and limiting the need for additional backup capacity.
By Basak Erkalan
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr