Recognition of the State of Palestine could pave the way for developing offshore gas fields, including Gaza Marine, which holds an estimated 30–35 billion cubic meters of reserves, experts say, though political and security challenges persist.
The Gaza Marine natural gas field was discovered in 2000 by the UK-based BG Group (British Gas), following two successful exploratory wells. It holds an estimated 1 trillion cubic feet (30–35 billion cubic meters) of gas and was seen as a major opportunity for Palestinian energy independence and revenue.
Initially, BG Group held a 90% stake in the license, with Palestinian company Consolidated Contractors Company (CCC) holding 10%. Today, CCC and the Palestine Investment Fund own the license, which has remained undeveloped for over two decades despite its promises.
Michael Barron, an independent consultant on transparency and governance issues, who worked on the Gaza Marine project at various times from 2003 to 2014 as a government relations manager for BG Group, said that broader international recognition of Palestine could help shift the legal and political environment.
"Recognition of the State of Palestine would strengthen the legal basis for developing the Gaza Marine field," Barron told Anadolu, adding that actual development would probably require the establishment of an independent Palestinian state.
He underlined that Israel has never claimed sovereignty over Gaza Marine or the waters in which it sits. However, he noted that Israel has blocked development efforts in the past.
"The field could provide Palestine with a reliable energy source and also contribute to financing the reconstruction of Gaza," Barron said.
- Shifting regional energy landscape
Sohbet Karbuz, director of oil and gas at the Mediterranean Organization for Energy and Climate (OMEC), highlighted how changing regional energy dynamics have further complicated Gaza Marine's future.
"Despite early hopes, repeated rounds of negotiations with Palestine and Israel -mediated at times by the US and UK- collapsed without agreement," he explained.
Momentum briefly returned following the 2020 Abraham Accords and closer Israeli-Egyptian energy cooperation. In June 2023, Israel authorized development under a consortium led by Egypt's state firm EGAS, with plans to begin production by 2026.
"Yet the 7 October 2023 conflict abruptly froze progress. With an estimated 30–35 billion cubic meters of reserves, Gaza Marine remains untapped—its future now uncertain," he said.
Karbuz said international recognition of Palestine would not only affirm its legal rights over offshore gas reserves and resources but also provide the foundation for maritime boundary delimitation and potential transit fee claims on the East Mediterranean Gas (EMG) pipeline.
"Yet, as long as the security situation remains uncertain and volatile, Gaza Marine and any future offshore exploration will likely remain effectively uninvestable—stranded assets suspended between legal entitlement and geopolitical insecurity," he said.
Karbuz added that Israel does not covet Gaza Marine itself, given its own larger gas discoveries. "What is at stake, however, is that full control over Gaza would enable Israel to advance exploration and infrastructure projects in disputed maritime zones—areas where sovereign rights remains contested and energy stakes are strategic," Karbuz warned.
- Economic lifeline for Palestinians
Both experts agreed that, under stable conditions, the Gaza Marine project could be transformative for Palestine. Developing the field would secure electricity supply, reduce reliance on imports, generate much-needed revenue, and support reconstruction in Gaza.
"In a just and lasting peace, Palestine stands to gain enormously from developing the Gaza Marine gas field—as a powerful source of revenue and a game-changing provider of electricity," Karbuz said.
However, he cautioned that the Gaza Marine partnership is a tangled web of corporate interests, political players, and regional power plays.
"This presents serious risks to ensuring that exploitation of this critical resource translates into tangible benefits for the Palestinian people. In other words, without transparent governance and clear accountability mechanisms will raise concerns about who will ultimately profit from Gaza’s most valuable offshore asset," he added.
By Ebru Sengul Cevrioglu
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr