The probability of Turkish Petroleum (TPAO) delivering gas in 2023 has risen significantly, with three contractors employed on the project since the third quarter of last year, according to Julian Bowden, a senior visiting research fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.
Bowden comments come amid much skepticism over the ability of TPAO to develop the sizable gas resources in the Sakarya field discovered in August 2020, which after further drilling, were even larger than first anticipated.
With help from three international companies, Bowden surmises that TPAO will be able to have some field production on schedule for the second half of next year.
Schlumberger & Subsea 7 acquired the EPIC contract (engineering, procurement, construction, installation) to develop the field. Saipem was contracted for pipelaying, which has now started, and the global leader in consulting and engineering across energy, Wood, was engaged for integrated project management.
'These are all world class companies and should enable TPAO to deliver the project more or less on schedule,” Bowden said.
However, although he said first gas in the first quarter of 2023 looks hard, he was hopeful of the possibility of some production in the second half of the year from today’s perspective.
'This is a large complex project, and even if first production doesn’t happen until 2024, it will still be a remarkable performance: to get first production in a new province in 3.5 years to maybe 4.5 years is a great achievement,' he added.
Nevertheless, he is optimistic that all parties involved will do their best to achieve first production in the centenary year of the Turkish Republic next year.
Bowden considers that production from Sakarya will be a game changer for Türkiye, allowing the country to become a producer for the first time.
'When Phase 2 is complete, scheduled 2027-28, production is targeted at 14-15 billion cubic meters per year, representing around 25% of current demand. With imports being both large and expensive, Sakarya will undoubtedly become an important national asset,' Bowden said.
By Murat Temizer