Non-hydroelectric renewable energy resources such as solar and wind will be the fastest growing source of U.S. electricity generation for at least the next two years, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
EIA's January 2019 Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts that electricity generation from utility-scale solar generating units will grow by 10 percent in 2019 and by 17 percent in 2020, while wind generation will grow by 12 percent and 14 percent during the same period.
According to the agency, the share of total U.S. electricity generation produced by all renewables other than hydropower will increase by three percentage points during the next two years, going from 10 percent of total generation in 2018 to 13 percent in 2020.
'This projected growth is a result of new generating capacity the industry expects to bring online,' the agency said, adding about 11 gigawatts (GW) of wind capacity is scheduled to come online in 2019, which would be the largest amount of new wind capacity installed in the U.S since 2012. An additional 8 GW of wind capacity is scheduled to come online in 2020.
EIA expects electricity generated from wind to surpass hydropower generation this year. 'The share of total U.S. generation from wind is projected to increase from 7 percent in 2018 to 9 percent in 2020,' it said.
According to the outlook, solar is currently the third-largest renewable energy source in the U.S. power sector, having surpassed biomass in 2017.
The sector plans to add more than 4 GW of new solar capacity in 2019 and almost 6 GW in 2020, the EIA said. This marks a total increase of 32 percent from the operational capacity at the end of 2018.
'Because of this increase, solar is forecast to contribute slightly more than 2 percent of total utility-scale generation in 2020,' it added.
According to the EIA, in addition to utility-scale solar in the electric power sector, some residences and businesses have installed small-scale solar photovoltaic systems to supply some of the electricity they consume.
The agency forecasts that small-scale solar generating capacity will grow by almost 9 GW during the next two years, marking an increase of 44 percent.
-Fossil fuels continue to be major source
Despite the growth from renewable energy sources, fossil fuels will still provide most of the electricity generated in the U.S., according to the outlook.
Coal and natural gas combined provided 63 percent of electricity generation in 2018 and EIA forecasts that they will provide 61 percent in 2020.
According to the agency, natural gas fueled 35 percent of total U.S. electricity generation in 2018, up from 24 percent in 2010.
'In contrast, the share of total generation from coal-fired power plants fell to 28 percent last year from 45 percent in 2010,' the EIA said, adding the natural gas generation share is forecast to grow to 37 percent by 2020 while coal is expected to continue declining to 24 percent by 2020.
According to the outlook, coal was the predominant source of electricity generation fuel in the U.S. until 2016, when annual electricity generation from natural gas-fired power plants surpassed coal-fired generation.
'Since then, natural gas has remained the primary source of electricity,' the EIA said, citing environmental regulations that led to retiring or modifying U.S. coal power plants, as well as the sustained low cost of gas and the increased overall efficiency of the natural gas power plant fleet as the main drivers behind the electric power sector's switch to natural gas from coal.
By Hale Turkes
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr