Türkiye's energy import bill is projected to fall by 2.4% year-on-year to $64 billion by the end of 2025, according to the country's medium-term program (MTP) for 2026-2028.
The country's energy import bill stood at $65.6 billion last year.
Brent crude oil prices, which averaged $80.5 per barrel in 2024, are expected to close this year at around $70.
Busra Zeynep Ozdemir, an energy studies researcher at the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA) based in Ankara, said the decline in the import bill is largely driven by a rise in domestic energy production.
"Growth in electricity generation is just one of the drivers of this decline," she told Anadolu.
In the first half of the year, Türkiye's electricity output rose by about 5% compared with the same period in 2024, from 163,493 gigawatt-hours to 171,348 gigawatt-hours, according to the country's Energy Market Regulatory Authority.
Installed capacity also expanded, reaching 119,632 megawatts in June 2025, up from 113,252 megawatts a year earlier.
Most of this growth came from renewables, particularly solar and wind, with total renewable installed capacity rising from 66,212 megawatts to 72,544 megawatts over the same period.
Oil production increased from 3 million barrels in the first half of 2024 to 4 million barrels in the same period this year, driven largely by the Gabar field, a mountainous region in the southeast.
"We expect this upward trend to continue with new exploration and production activities both domestically and abroad," Ozdemir said.
Natural gas output also rose, climbing from 203 million cubic meters in December 2024 to 288 million cubic meters in July 2025.
"With new wells being drilled in the Sakarya Gas Field and the planned commissioning of the floating production unit Osman Gazi next year, we anticipate production will grow substantially," she added.
- Falling Asian demand pressures prices
Ozdemir noted that weaker international oil and gas prices have also eased import costs, citing the role of supply-demand dynamics.
"Brent crude remaining around $70 per barrel by year-end will support the decline in the import bill," she said.
Falling hydrocarbon demand, particularly in Asia, has lowered prices for European countries seeking alternative suppliers after the Russia-Ukraine war, Ozdemir said and added: "Although ongoing conflicts in the Gulf, Israel's intensifying war, and military interventions extending to Lebanon, Yemen, Iran and most recently Qatar have briefly lifted oil prices, expanded supply amid weakening demand has pushed them back down."
- Transition targets to cut import dependence
Türkiye has updated its 2035 energy targets in line with its 2053 net-zero emissions goal, with wind and solar capacity expected to reach 120,000 megawatts.
Ozdemir added that the first reactor of the Akkuyu Nuclear Power Plant, scheduled to come online in 2026, will reduce reliance on thermal power plants.
Once fully operational in 2030, the plant is expected to further cut fossil fuel-based energy imports.
By Ebru Sengul Cevrioglu
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr