The number of electric vehicles globally is projected to reach around 350 million by 2040, from which around 300 million are expected to be passenger cars, according to BP's Energy Outlook 2019 report released late Thursday.
The company forecasted that electric vehicles will continue to grow rapidly through 2040, concentrated within passenger cars, light-duty trucks (LDTs) and public buses.
BP's report equated the 350 million electric vehicles to around 15 percent of all cars and 12 percent of LDTs.
These forecasts through 2040 are based on BP's 'evolving transition' (ET) scenario, which assume that government policies, technology and social preferences continue to evolve in a manner and speed seen over the recent past.
'The use of electric passenger cars is amplified by the emergence of autonomous cars (AVs) from the early 2020s offering low-cost, shared-mobility services, predominantly in electric cars,' BP explained.
'As a result, around 25 percent of passenger vehicle kilometers are powered by electricity in 2040, even though only 15 percent of cars are electrified,' it continued.
The report underlined that the rise in global prosperity will lead to a shift away from high-occupancy road transport like buses to private vehicles, reducing the global load factor for road vehicles, i.e. the average number of passengers per vehicle.
BP foresees that this trend will be compounded by the falling cost of road travel associated with the growing availability of low-cost shared mobility services using autonomous vehicles.
'The fall in the global load factor for road vehicles and associated increase in road congestion is a key challenge facing the global transport system over the outlook,' BP said.
- Carbon emissions in transport still high
BP argued that despite significant increases in vehicle efficiency and electrification, carbon emissions in the transport sector in the ET scenario will continue to increase.
BP's alternative ‘lower-carbon transport’ (LCT) scenario includes a number of measures designed to reduce carbon emissions in the transport sector.
The first of these is the further tightening in vehicle efficiency standards, such that the average internal-combustion engine car in 2040 will be around 55 percent more efficient than today, while the pace of efficiency will also increase in new trucks and ships.
A second measure points to increased electrification, including bans on sales of all internal combustion engine cars in much of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries (OECD) and in China by 2040. And soon after, it envisages that half of the global sales of new trucks and buses will be electric or hydrogen-powered by 2040.
A third measure suggests increased use of shared mobility services, including more consumer-friendly ‘mini-buses’, which will increase the share of passenger kilometers that are electrified while helping to arrest some of the decline in the global road ‘load factor.’
A fourth measure underlines an increase in the share of biofuels in road transport in the OECD and China to 20 percent by 2040 and to 10 percent in the rest of the world. In aviation, it projects an increased share of biofuels in jet fuel to 20 percent in the developed world by 2040.
The last measure proposed involves car scrappage schemes that reduce the typical lifespan of a car from around 12 years to eight years by 2040, improving the average efficiency of the global car parc and the pace of electrification.
By Ebru Sengul
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr