Global electricity demand is forecast to grow by 3.3% in 2025 and by 3.7% in 2026, while coal's share in power generation is projected to fall below 33% for the first time in a century, according to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025 released on Wednesday.
The report estimates that global electricity consumption will exceed 29,000 terawatt-hours (TWh) in 2026, reaching a new all-time high.
This strong growth is driven by industrial activity, increased air conditioning use, data center expansion, and ongoing electrification across sectors.
Electricity demand is expected to grow more than twice as fast as total energy demand in 2025.
China and India alone will account for 60% of global demand growth through 2026.
While China's electricity demand growth slows from 7% in 2024 to 5% this year, it is expected to accelerate again to 5.7% in 2026.
India is projected to grow by 4% in 2025 and 6.6% in 2026.
In the US, data center expansion is set to drive demand growth of 2.3% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026.
The EU is expected to see more modest increases of 1.1% and 1.5% respectively.
- Solar and wind to meet over 90% of demand growth
On the supply side, renewables are leading the charge. Solar and wind generation surpassed 4,000 TWh in 2024, are expected to exceed 5,000 TWh in 2025, and cross the 6,000 TWh threshold in 2026.
Together, these sources are expected to meet over 90% of global electricity demand growth in 2025.
Their share in total electricity generation is projected to rise from 15% in 2024 to 17% in 2025 and 20% in 2026.
IEA expects electricity generation from renewables to overtake coal as early as 2025 or by 2026 at the latest.
As a result, coal's share in total generation will fall below 33% for the first time in a century.
Following 1.3% growth in 2024, global coal-fired generation is forecast to decline by 0.5% in 2025 and 1.3% in 2026.
In China, coal generation decreased by 2.6% year-over-year in the first half of 2025, while solar output increased by 45%, wind output by 11%, and nuclear output by 11%.
Low-emission sources accounted for over 40% of generation in the first half of 2025, significantly higher than the five-year average for the same period.
In 2026, renewable output is expected to continue rising, reducing further reliance on coal.
- Global carbon emissions set to drop
The shift is also impacting emissions. Global carbon emissions from electricity generation are expected to plateau in 2025 and decline slightly, by less than 1%, in 2026.
The carbon intensity of electricity generation is forecast to drop from 445 gCO₂/kWh in 2024 to 415 gCO₂/kWh in 2026.
The EU is expected to lead the reduction at an average of 10% per year, followed by China at over 5% annually.
IEA underscores that the decline in coal must be accompanied by flexible grid infrastructure and supportive market frameworks.
The increasing incidence of negative electricity prices, seen in 8-9% of hours in countries like Germany, the Netherlands, and Spain, and recent large-scale blackouts in Chile, Spain, and Portugal highlight the urgency of adapting electricity systems for a secure and resilient low-emissions future.
By Murat Temizer
Anadolu Agency
energy@aa.com.tr